Fragile ceasefire may hinge on Iran’s demand to control the Strait of Hormuz

Though President Donald Trump started a war against Iran to fully eliminate its potential to develop a nuclear weapon, destroy its navy, and degrade its ballistic missile program, the success of the current ceasefire may hinge entirely on whether Tehran backs off its demands to control the Strait of Hormuz. 

The narrow waterway is the entry point to the Arabian Gulf and is home to shipping lanes vital for the global supply of oil and natural gas. Before war broke out earlier this year, about a quarter of the global seaborne oil trade passed through the Strait of Hormuz. 

But, the conflict has all but closed off the strait to commercial traffic, spiking prices globally amid the fear of oil shortages. Damage to oil and gas infrastructure in Iran and its Gulf Arab neighbors during the war also imbue uncertainty about whether suppliers can quickly resume normal exports once the hot war has ceased. 

When the U.S. negotiating team sits down with their Iranian counterparts this weekend in Islamabad, Pakistan, to discuss terms, the future of the strait is likely to feature prominently. The success or failure of the talks may hinge on whether Iran is willing to back off one of its key demands – full control of the Strait of Hormuz and an ability to charge tolls on future oil shipments through it. 

Despite ceasefire, Iran tightens control on Strait of Hormuz

President Trump has consistently demanded that Iran cease its threats to commercial shipping in the strait and insists that, in private at least, Iran has agreed that at the end of the conflict “the Strait of Hormuz WILL BE OPEN & SAFE.” 

Yet, since Trump and Tehran announced the two-week ceasefire earlier this week contingent on the opening of the strait, Iran has moved to tighten its control of the vital waterway by charging tolls to passing ships, demanding vessels coordinate with the regime’s revolutionary guard, and reportedly continues to threaten unapproved vessels with destruction. 

Since the conflict began, Iran has bet that it can outlast the United States’ military operation by holding the global energy market hostage forever, Just the News previously reported. Regime officials have explicitly threatened high gas prices for consumers in a bid to pressure Trump to end his attacks.  

Ahead of the scheduled negotiations, Trump warned the Iranians against keeping the strait closed.

"Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz," Trump posted to Truth Social on Thursday. "That is not the agreement we have!" 

Sam Faddis, Senior Fellow at the non-profit Center for Security Policy and a retired CIA operations officer, told Just the News that the Iranians intend to hold not just the strait but all oil production facilities in the gulf region at risk because this is the regime’s primary source of leverage over the U.S.-Israel coalition. 

“[It's] not just keeping the straits closed. It's, you know, if we really get in, our backs are against the wall, we'll just burn the whole place down, like permanently. We'll burn it down, we'll send so many drones that Saudi won't pump a barrel of oil for five years,” Faddis said of Iran's war strategy in an interview on the Just the News, No Noise TV show.  

Expert calls Iran's position a "suicide vest" mentality

“[That], you know […] a giant suicide vest […] mentality that's that's their real leverage, and we will see whether they feel like we've hurt them enough that they're going to make a deal,” said Faddis. 

One expert told The New York Times that Iran’s ability to exert its own will over the strait during the conflict suggests that the country may have even more leverage than it did before the fighting began earlier this year. 

“It’s actually more of a leverage than the nuclear program ever was,” said Hamidreza Azizi, who studies Iranian issues at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. “Now they are in a better position to bargain.” 

Iran has demanded that any vessel that seeks passage through the Strait of Hormuz coordinate directly with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the powerful paramilitary organization affiliated with Iranian leadership and which is designated a terrorist organization by the United States and many of its allies. 

It has also set up a toll system for the strait to collect a fee from commercial vessels that the regime says it will use to rebuild the country following several weeks of U.S. and Israeli strikes. 

Hamid Hosseini, a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union told the Financial Times that Iran will charge a tariff of $1 per barrel of oil on any commercial vessel seeking passage. Iran is demanding payment in either cryptocurrency or Chinese Yuan as a way to circumvent U.S. sanctions. 

Iran continues military threats against commercial shipping

Iran intends to enforce this new system with the threat of force. Despite the pause in fighting under the ceasefire, Iran reportedly continues to threaten commercial vessels with destruction if they fail to register with authorities. 

“If any vessels try to transit without permission, [they] will be destroyed,” Iranian authorities said in a radio transmission to vessels, according to the Financial Times. Since the conflict began earlier this year, Iran has used suicide drones and ballistic missiles to threaten commercial vessels in a bid to pressure the U.S. to end the conflict.   

While President Trump has repeatedly called for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, he has been less clear about whether it is a red line for the United States as it prepares to negotiate directly with regime representatives this weekend. 

"I will not allow a terrorist regime to hold the world hostage and attempt to stop the globe's oil supply," Trump said in the early days of the conflict. "And if Iran does anything to do that, they'll get hit at a much, much harder level."

On Thursday, after the ceasefire took effect, the American president suggested that Iran has already agreed privately that the strait will be reopened once the conflict is over. "It was agreed, a long time ago, and despite all of the fake rhetoric to the contrary - NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS and, the Strait of Hormuz WILL BE OPEN & SAFE,” Trump posed to Truth Social. 

The Iranian 10-point plan is a "non-starter" expert says

Iranian officials, however, are insistent that ceasefire negotiations should be centered on a list of ten demands that the regime supplied to the United States. One of those demands is that Iran retain complete control over shipping in the strait. Faddis told Just the News that these demands would likely be unacceptable for the United States. 

“I would characterize their 10 Point Plan as a surrender document, but we're the ones who are supposed to surrender to them. So yes, [it's a] non-starter,” Faddis said. What is critical to negotiations, he added, “is that [Iran] understand[s] that we are prepared to walk away and go back to beating the hell out of them.”

If the Iranian regime refuses to fully open the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, the United States has several options at its disposal. The United States Navy could set up escorts using destroyers with advanced missile defense systems to escort commercial vessels, though this would be taxing to U.S. forces that are already stretched thin. 

Another option President Trump has is to order an oil embargo on Iran, intercepting sanctioned oil tankers that serve as the regime's economic lifeline, much like the U.S. seized several shadow fleet tankers departing Venezuela late last year and earlier this year ahead of the U.S. intervention there. Since the ceasefire took hold earlier this week, Iran has permitted several tankers that are likely part of the global shadow fleet to pass through the strait.