Netanyahu in close race to remain prime minister, as Israel holds 1st national election since Oct 7

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a tough reelection vote Tuesday amid voter concerns about security lapses ahead of the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, terror attacks and his handling of the wars that ensued. 

Voters, in addition to deciding on whether to reelect Netanyahu, the country’s longest-serving prime minister, will also elect all 120 members of the country's Knesset, the country's national parliament. This 26th Knesset is the first Israeli legislature since 1988 to complete its full four-year term without early dissolution.

The election is the first national one since the terror attacks carried out by Hamas in which roughly 1,200 people, mostly Israelis, were killed. In the aftermath, wars ignited in Hamas-controlled Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.

The election outcome on Tuesday will depend not only on the parties’ vote totals but also on their ability to form a coalition. Israelis elect members of the Knesset through a system of proportional representation, and a government needs the support of at least 61 lawmakers.

On Saturday, thousands of Israelis gathered in Tel Aviv to protest Netanyahu’s government and demand an independent investigation into the Oct. 7-releted security failures. Netanyahu has to date declined to establish a state commission of inquiry.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu supporters have said the prime minister's experience makes him best prepared to protect the country.

“October 7 is kind of a framework for the entire political discussion that is going on,” Tamar Hermann, of the Israel Democracy Institute, recently told the Associated Press.

Netanyahu, 77, has defended his record, pointing to Israel’s military campaigns and his relationships with international allies, including the United States under GOP President Donald Trump, who has endorsed his reelection. 

Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot has emerged as a leading challenger. His centrist Yashar! party is campaigning on government accountability, military service reform and a state inquiry into the Oct. 7 failures.

Eisenkot, who served in Netanyahu’s war cabinet before resigning, has argued that the country needs a change in leadership. He has pledged to establish a state commission of inquiry to investigate Oct. 7 if elected prime minister.

“The most fateful elections in the history of the State of Israel are between evasion and enlistment. Between taking responsibility and fleeing from responsibility,” he wrote in a recent post on X, without naming Netanyahu.

Eisenkot's family has suffered losses in the Gaza war, including the deaths of his son and nephew in combat.

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and opposition leader Yair Lapid are also running together on a joint ticket, which poses another challenge for Netanyahu.

A comparison of the four leading polls published over the weekend, and their average results, shows neither Netanyahu nor his political rivals with a clear path to forming a government, according to the Jerusalem Post.

Netanyahu is hoping to maintain support from the far-right and ultra-Orthodox voters to maintain his parliamentary majority. 

Some religious Jewish parties want ultra-Orthodox men to continue their exemption from mandatory military service. 

Some of Netanyahu's opponents, like Eisenkot, believe these men should have to serve like everyone else. This disagreement appears to be causing division among the parties that support Netanyahu.

Ultimately, the election will test whether Netanyahu can maintain the support of his political allies or whether divisions over military service and accountability will open the door to a new government. 

Nearly every recent election has been a referendum on Netanyahu. This time, many Israelis have said the choice is more consequential than ever: not only about who will lead the country, but about where it is heading.