US-Saudi civilian nuclear deal raises proliferation concerns in Middle East

As Washington prosecutes a war to end Iran’s nuclear enrichment capabilities and clandestine weapons program, the U.S. decision to grant Saudi Arabia a deal to expand its civilian nuclear industry without strict safeguards could invite the proliferation of nuclear weapons, analysts say. 

Administration officials said Wednesday that President Donald Trump approved a nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia that will provide the country with a civilian nuclear program, built by U.S. companies. 

The deal, known as a 123 Agreement, reportedly leaves the door open to future enrichment of nuclear material in the kingdom under U.S. direction and supervision, but without the most stringent safeguards. 

The agreement will face a review from Congress where it may encounter opposition from lawmakers who have been skeptical in the past of Saudi Arabia’s nuclear ambitions. In 2019, GOP Sen. Marco Rubio—now secretary of State—raised concerns about the Trump administration’s decision to approve American companies sharing nuclear technology know-how with the kingdom. 

The Biden administration originally conditioned the deal for nuclear cooperation with Saudi Arabia on the kingdom normalizing relations with Israel. Progress on that front was interrupted after Hamas’ October 2023 attack against Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza. The Trump administration does not appear to be insisting on Israeli normalization before entering into a nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia. 

Andrea Stricker, deputy director of the Nonproliferation Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Just the News that the reported terms of the deal would likely weaken U.S. efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.

She pointed specifically to the fact that the deal does not include the so-called “gold standard,” a promise from Saudi Arabia that it will not enrich uranium at home or reprocess the spent fuel from nuclear reactors. According to the reports, Saudi Arabia rejected such terms. 

Saudi Arabia also reportedly rejected the “Additional Protocol,” which would allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors broad access to a country’s nuclear sites and the ability to carry out snap inspections at an undisclosed location. 

“The reported deal weakens decades of U.S. nonproliferation standards against spreading uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing capabilities – processes that provide countries with the means to produce fuel for nuclear weapons,” Stricker said. 

“After successfully rolling back Iran's enrichment program via force, Washington should insist on the gold standard it has with the United Arab Emirates, which ruled out enrichment and reprocessing and signed the IAEA's enhanced inspection agreement.” 

When the United States signed a similar 123 Agreement in 2009 with Saudi Arabia’s neighbor, the United Arab Emirates, the country voluntarily agreed to that gold standard and swore off nuclear enrichment. 

Earlier this year, while the Trump administration was negotiating the nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia, Democratic Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts and a sponsor of the “No Nuclear Weapons for Saudi Arabia Act,” said that the United States should insist on the “gold standard” for any civilian cooperation with the kingdom. 

“Congress should use its authority to reject this agreement. Anything less risks transforming the Middle East into a nuclear Wild West and creating a devastating new nuclear arms race in the region,” Markey said in a statement. 

The White House directed Just the News to a statement from Energy Secretary Chris Wright. He said on Wednesday that the agreement will uphold the United States’ longstanding nuclear nonproliferation standards. 

“Rest assured, these agreements uphold the highest standards of nuclear safety and nonproliferation, while relying on the world’s best nuclear technology and scientists, designed right here in the United States,” Wright said. “Thanks to President Trump, the American nuclear renaissance is underway and will deliver long-term benefits to the American and Saudi people.”

However, complicating the picture further is the fact that Saudi leaders have said publicly that if Iran, the kingdom’s chief regional rival, obtains a nuclear weapon, that they would be forced to pursue one as well. 

“Saudi Arabia does not want to acquire any nuclear bomb, but without a doubt if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible,” Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told CBS News in a 2018 interview. 

Trump launched strikes alongside Israel in February aimed at crippling Iran’s military and preventing Tehran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon. The two countries also conducted strikes on Iran’s suspected nuclear sites the prior summer. 

The American president insists that the strikes and subsequent conflict have destroyed Iran’s nuclear capabilities. It is not clear whether that assessment impacted the administration’s willingness to pursue the civilian agreement with Riyadh. 

As Secretary Wright said, the administration is relying on a bilateral agreement with Riyadh for verification measures that will prevent Saudi Arabia from using nuclear technology for a weapons program. 

The Trump administration notified Congress in March that the United States will sign a “Bilateral Safeguards Agreement,” which will include verification measures to “verify the absence of diversion of nuclear material,” the Arms Control Association reported.  

Stricker told Just the News that Washington could still assist Saudi Arabia with civilian nuclear uses if its rulers agree to the “gold standard” and rule out enrichment, thus still providing economic benefits without the proliferation risks.  

“The United States can assist Riyadh with other aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle, including reactors, without lighting off a new regional race for sensitive nuclear capabilities,” Stricker explained.