Economic doom and gloom a year ago turns to optimism over a possible Trump boom

President Donald Trump's advisers are flagging a significant surge in U.S. business investment as a signal America may be headed toward an economic boom, just months after many economists fretted over the lingering effects of Bidenomics like inflation.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was the latest to call attention to a significant uptick in industrial production of business equipment in Federal Reserve data, suggesting Tuesday it was a sign that businesses were unleashing capital spending after months of wariness.

"Thanks to @POTUS's pro-growth, America First agenda, we’re seeing a CapEx Comeback," Bessent wrote on X, noting business equipment production had jumped 11% annualized in the second quarter after a huge 23% gain in the first quarter.

Bessent called the two-quarter run "the strongest back-to-back growth since 1997" and boasted the capital expenditures are "up 16.6% in the first half of 2025, signaling a major investment wave underway.

"The One Big Beautiful Bill jumpstarted investment that’s lifting productivity, wages, and living standards," he added. "Blue collar paychecks are rising fast — second only to  @realDonaldTrump’s first term — and the best is yet to come."

That optimism is spreading to Congress.

"People get excited about investing," Rep. Jimmy Patronis, R-Fla., who also served as the state of Florida's Chief Financial Officer, told Just The News. "They get excited about predictability of where their money is going to go and what type of return they can get.

"And all that people ask for is just predictability in their investments. I want to build a new building, a waste treatment plant, you name it. I want to build it," he added.

The equipment production numbers, which include items like tractor-trailers, computer servers, and industrial machinery, reflect business confidence in future expansion, as these investments are aimed at increasing a company's capacity for further production.

The metric seems to solidify the notion that when businesses spend a little more before and during an era of prosperity and productivity, they reap the rewards on the back end in revenue.

The pertinent data shows that industrial production of business equipment rose by 7.9% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the last three months of 2024, translating to an annualized growth rate of 16.5%. This marks the most significant two-quarter increase since 1997, excluding the unique rebound that followed the 2020 pandemic.

Joe Lavorgna, who serves as counselor to Bessent, told Axios that the Trump administration intends to promote this data as a key economic achievement of the administration.

Lavorgna, who has decades of experience as a private-sector forecaster, underscored the data’s reliability as an early indicator of capital spending trends, which drive productivity and income growth through “capital deepening”—equipping workers with more resources to boost output.

Another factor that contributes to business confidence is when government gets out of the way. The regulatory state has loomed large and suppressed economic development, which became a hallmark of Trump's campaign in 2024 and now a clarion call for action in Congress.

"Things like soft costs and permitting become cost factors," Patronis explained. "We've got a permitting bill that's on the floor of the House today. We are moving the ball down the field because we want to get this economy back up and running." 

The surge is attributed to heightened business optimism, spurred by favorable tax policies in the administration’s recent One Big Beautiful Bill's tax legislation. Such policies historically incentivize investment, encouraging companies to devote resources to expanding their operations. The implications of this trend can be substantial, as increased capital spending then typically leads to higher productivity, which elevates wages and ultimately benefits America's economic prosperity overall. 

Rep. Austin Scott, R-Ga., told the John Solomon Reports podcast Tuesday that changes to the federal estate tax will allow Americans to transfer more wealth without incurring that tax, which often stifles business operations and incentives to produce. 

"It's a huge tax," Scott warned. "If you think about your small-town manufacturing business, it's on all of their equipment, all their buildings, your small-town car dealerships... So small-town America depends on these blue-collar industries that have assets and machinery and buildings and everything else."