Trump revives immigration pressure move in tariffs, as Democrats likely to reverse admin policies

In President Donald Trump's border playbook, the barrier that has moved Mexico fastest isn't made of steel or concrete but of tariffs. With Democrats retaking Congress and at least one new migrant caravan heading north, the president is reaching for the weapon once more.

In a Thursday post on Truth Social, Trump warned that if Mexico does not stop the caravans, "the Tariffs on Mexico will be IMMEDIATELY DOUBLED." He added that there would be "no leniency."

One group of about 2,000 migrants left the southern Mexican city of Tapachula, roughly 1,150 miles from the U.S. border, with some saying they hoped Democratic gains in the midterm elections would soften U.S. immigration policy. 

Fox News put the group at about 1,500 people, mostly from Central America, and is reportedly the third caravan to try to cross Mexico since September. 

Trump tied the surge directly to the election, arguing that Republican losses had invited a renewed "INVASION" even though he was not on the ballot. 

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum rejected Trump's claims, saying no migrant caravan has reached the U.S. border since January 2025. That point, made as a rebuttal, also shows how much the border has changed since Trump returned to office.

The 2019 blueprint

This is not the first time Trump has used trade as a border tool. In May 2019, he announced a 5% tariff on all Mexican imports starting June 10 unless Mexico acted to stop Central American migrants from crossing its territory. The tariff could have climbed to 25% by October.

The resulting deal came about a week later. In a joint declaration, Mexico pledged "unprecedented steps to increase enforcement to curb irregular migration," including deploying its National Guard nationwide. Mexico also agreed to share more intelligence and to let the U.S. return asylum-seekers to Mexico while their cases were pending. Mexico committed 6,000 Guard troops to its border with Guatemala.

Critics argued the concessions were overstated. Mexico had already planned the Guard deployment and had told U.S. officials so. Trump defended the deal, insisting Mexico never would have acted without the threat.

Round two came even faster

Trump returned to the same lever weeks into his second term. After he ordered 25% tariffs on Mexican goods on February 1, 2025, Sheinbaum initially threatened retaliation. Within two days, Trump paused the tariffs for a month after Sheinbaum agreed to send 10,000 National Guard members to the border. Mexico began moving 6,310 Guard members and 2,700 soldiers north the next day, to states including Baja California, Chihuahua, Sonora and Tamaulipas.

The results have shown up in the numbers. The Washington Examiner reported about 99,000 border arrests in Trump's first year back, compared with about 2 million in former President Joe Biden's first year.

Same lever, new rules

This time, Trump is reaching for the lever under different legal limits. On Feb. 20, the Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not allow the president to impose tariffs. The 6-3 decision struck down a central piece of his trade agenda. That ruling wiped out the 25% fentanyl-related tariff on Mexico. Brookings analysts noted that it specifically limits the use of emergency tariffs to pressure countries on fentanyl and related enforcement.

The administration responded quickly. It imposed a temporary global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which caps such tariffs at 15% for 150 days and exempted USMCA-compliant goods from Mexico and Canada. That tariff expired July 24.

Other tools remain in play. The ruling did not touch Section 232 national security tariffs on goods such as steel, aluminum and autos, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said combining the remaining authorities would leave 2026 tariff revenue "virtually unchanged." Trump's post did not say which tariffs would be doubled or under what law.

Border states are also shifting. Trump's post said Texas' incoming Democratic governor had been informed, and Texas Attorney General-elect Nathan Johnson, a Democrat, could drop the state's defense of SB4, the law allowing state arrests for illegal border crossings. That would make federal leverage over Mexico more important to Trump's border agenda.

Amanda Head is White House Correspondent for Just the News. You can follow her here.