U.S.-Canada drama reach new heights as Carney says he's prepared for US military invasion

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's anti-U.S. vitriol has reached new heights after he suggested he has prepared for a possible military invasion by American forces. "I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk," Carney said recently. "That's just risk management. That's not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to" prepare.

According to armedforces.eu, a military database, the United States Armed Forces have about 1,333,030 active-duty troops, while the Canadian Armed Forces have roughly 63,500 active personnel, and U.S. firepower vastly outguns that available to Canada.

Canada unhappy with pace of U.S. trade agreements

Carney railed against new U.S. tariffs that went into place in the absence of a formal trade deal between the two countries. 

"Progress has not been enough to meet our objectives for Canadians. As a result, this evening, I have decided to suspend trade negotiations with the U.S. and have directed Canada’s negotiators to return to Ottawa," he said in a statement in late August.

“In recent days, the United States proposed new terms that were uneconomic, unfair, and undermined the net benefits for Canada, and called into question the reliability of any deal. In short, they asked too much, and they offered too little,” Carney said during a press conference.

"The reality is President Trump is comfortable where we are on Canada," said United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said during an interview on Friday. "They call us now and then, and we have good conversations about potential deals. But there's no urgency on our side."

This week, the Trump administration said it doesn't see an urgency to hatch a trade deal with Canada any time soon.

Romancing China and the EU

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney traveled to China in January 2026—the first visit by a Canadian leader in nearly a decade—to forge a new strategic partnership and diversify Canada's trade away from heavy reliance on the U.S., the South China Morning Post reported. 

According to reports from CBS News, Canada agreed to reduce its 100% tariff on Chinese electric cars in exchange for lower tariffs on farm products coming from Canada. In addition, China lowered its duties on Canadian canola oil and suspended tariffs on peas, crab, and lobster.

According to the Canadian Broadcasting Company, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick took a more bellicose approach, accusing Canada of turning its back on the U.S. "We are a $30 trillion economy, we are the consumer of the world. Carney has a problem with us, he gets on a plane and goes to China? Does he think the Chinese economy is going to buy his stuff?" he [reportedly] said to Bloomberg.

Carney has been advocating behind the scenes for more Canadian integration with the EU, according to reports and the European Union has expressed a willingness to make Canada an "associate member" of the EU. European Union President Ursula von der Leyen said in mid-September that she wants to work on "opening the door" for Canada going forward.

Carney has embraced the "associate member" offer, while Trump was critical, calling the move a "hostile act," and laughable. "If it’s a good intention, that’s fine. If it’s a bad intention, we’ll put very heavy tariffs on Europe," Trump said.

Trump often argues that Canada should be the "51st state" of the U.S., a prospect that Carney has rejected. Despite that, Carney said as recently as this month that he has a good relationship with Trump.

"From my perspective, we have a good relationship in the sense of we can pick up the phone and talk to each other about issues," he told The New York Times. "He's direct," Carney added. "I'm direct in terms of where positions are. It's much more efficient that way, and so you know that exists and that will continue to exist."