You Vote: Between the Michigan and Texas Senate races, which Republican is most likely to win?

Two Senate races in particular are both projected to have razor-thin margins for whichever candidate wins. 

In Texas, it is Ken Paxton vs. James Talarico. In Michigan, it is Mike Rogers vs. Abdul El-Sayed. 

The midterm elections are coming up in less than three weeks, on November 3, and control of the US House and Senate are on the line.