Tafoya in striking distance of Flanagan in MN Senate race: Poll

The survey's 2.95% margin of error means the race is a statistical tie.

Published: October 1, 2026 9:34am

Republican Michele Tafoya is within striking distance of Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, D, in the Minnesota Senate race, according to ar recent survey.

While Flanagan retained the lead with 46% support among likely voters in the latest InsiderAdvantage survey, Tafoya was hot on her heels with 45%. A further 6% were undecided while 3% backed other candidates.

The survey's 2.95% margin of error means the race is a statistical tie. 

Minnesota is typically viewed as a Democratic stronghold and the competitive contest for Senate seems to be an oddity this cycle, especially as Democrats appear to be pulling ahead in other contests.

"This survey is unusual in that it goes against many of the trends we are seeing in other Senate contests," pollster Matt Towery said. "It appears that the decrease in popularity of Governor Tim Walz, combined with the growing evidence of fraud in the state are taking a toll on the DFL nominee."

Conducted Sept. 28-29, the survey questioned 1,200 likely voters and has a margin of error of 2.95%.

Ben Whedon is the Chief Political Correspondent at Just the News. Follow him on X.

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