Next pope inherits Vatican deal giving CCP control over bishops amidst Catholic persecution

The Holy Father who emerges from the upcoming papal enclave following Pope Francis' death will inherit a deal between the Vatican and China which ceded to the Chinese Communist Party control over appointing bishops amidst the CCP’s persecution of Catholics and other religious minorities.

Although no one actually knows what will happen when the next pope is selected at the Sistine Chapel starting this month, Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin — a close ally of Francis, the Vatican’s secretary of state, and the architect of the controversial deal with China — is considered among the top frontrunners by many Vatican watchers. But even if Parolin is not the next pope, the successor to Francis will have to decide what to do with the deal as the Chinese Communist Party continues to strengthen its grip over Catholics in China.

The Chinese government said the number of Catholics in China numbered roughly 6 million in 2018, according to the Pew Research Center. The Holy Spirit Study Centre in Hong Kong estimated there were 10 million Catholics in China in 2020. Asia Harvest, a non-denominational Christian ministry, estimated that in 2020 there were 8.2 million Catholics in the Chinese government-run Catholic church in China and 11.7 million Catholics in underground churches in the country.

The existence of the Sino-Vatican deal — referred to as a "provisional agreement" whose specific text remains secret at the behest of both the CCP and the Vatican — was first announced in 2018 and has been renewed multiple times, most recently in October 2024 when the deal was extended all the way to 2028. What is publicly known about the "Provisional Agreement regarding the Appointment of Bishops" is that it has given the CCP unprecedented sway over the selection of Catholic prelates in China. 

China's long history with the Vatican and an "underground" church 

Chinese Communist revolutionary leader Mao Zedong broke ties with the Catholic Church and kicked out the Vatican’s envoy in 1951. Ever since, the Catholic Church in China has been overseen by the CCP, including the CCP-led “Chinese Catholic Patriotic Association” (CCPA) and the CCP-led "Bishops’ Conference of the Catholic Church in China."

The CCPA is functionally an arm of the Chinese United Front Work Department — which Xi has called his "magic weapon" — and the CCP has acted as if the Sino-Vatican deal gave the pope's imprimatur to the CCPA.

This self-described “patriotic” and “Catholic” group allegedly expresses its patriotism through exclusive loyalty to the CCP and to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who has pushed for the “Sinicization” of Catholicism and all other religions in China, to bring them even harder under the thumb of the CCP.

The "underground" Catholic Church in China — which refuses to recognize the CCP’s authority — has been persecuted by the CCP for decades, with outside analysts arguing that this persecution has increased since the Sino-Vatican deal went into effect.

The CCP-controlled "official" Catholic Church is one of five authorized religions in China: Catholicism, Protestant Christianity, Buddhism, Islam, and Taoism. Each has a CCP-controlled organization assigned to monitor them.

Parolin insisted in January that “the Holy See deemed this agreement to be the most effective solution to begin a dialogue with one of the key issues on the table. … I believe the agreement on bishops' appointments seeks to achieve two fundamental things, progressing slowly — sometimes even taking a step backwards — but moving in the right direction.”

Despite its deal with China, the Holy See remains one of the few — and shrinking — number of countries who recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state independent of China, and is the only country in Europe which does so. Allegedly, the CCP constantly pressures the Vatican to cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan if it wants better relations with China.

Many key details about the Chinese government's views on and actions regarding the Catholic Church in China are only available to the public in Chinese. Just the News used Google Translate for these passages.

In 2021, the CCP’s State Administration for Religious Affairs (SARA) released its “Measures on the Management of Religious Clergy.” That edict says “Religious clergy should love the motherland, support the leadership of the Communist Party of China, support the socialist system, abide by the Constitution, laws, regulations and rules, practice the core socialist values, adhere to the principle of independence and self-management of our country's religions," among other strictures, the Chinese agency declared. 

Pushback from Cardinal Zen in Hong Kong

The deal has faced serious criticism from Hong Kong Cardinal Joseph Zen — the outspoken 93-year-old leader of the Catholic faithful in Hong Kong — who has been jailed and prosecuted by the CCP authorities there. Zen has personally attacked Parolin for abandoning the underground Catholic Church in China by cutting this deal with the CCP. Hong Kong, once marginally independent, has been under ever-increasing CCP political and social control by means of strict law enforcement.  

Zen wrote in March 2020 that “my personal impression is that Parolin manipulates the pope, at least in things regarding the Church in China.” Zen has consistently argued that the deal is bad for the Vatican and bad for Catholics in China.

When Zen was arrested and prosecuted by the CCP in May 2022, the Vatican was largely silent, just as the Vatican has been largely silent about Hong Kong’s persecution of media mogul and pro-democracy leader Jimmy Lai, who is Catholic. The Sino-Vatican deal has also been slammed by Republicans such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and outside expert groups such as the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom have said the deal has only made things worse for Catholics in China.

Zen wrote in March 2020 that “my personal impression is that Parolin manipulates the pope, at least in things regarding the Church in China.” Zen has consistently argued that the deal is bad for the Vatican and bad for Catholics in China. 

When Zen was prosecuted by the CCP-controlled Hong Kong government, the Vatican was largely silent, just as the Vatican has been largely silent about Hong Kong’s persecution of Catholic pro-democracy leader Jimmy Lai.

“Today, we celebrated the Holy Mass in the crypt of St. Peter’s Basilica, offering special prayers for the Universal Church and the Church in China!” Zen tweeted in late April as he visited the Vatican for Francis’s funeral.

Zen argued against the bad deal with China for years before Francis signed it in 2018.

“We are very much worried because it seems that the Vatican is going to make a very bad agreement with China,” Zen said in a February 2017 interview with LifeSiteNews. “And I can understand that the pope is really naive…He doesn’t know the Chinese communists. But unfortunately the people around him are not good at all. They have very wrong ideas. And I’m afraid that they may sell out our underground Church. That would be very sad.”

A year later, Zen again publicly expressed his worries that China and the Vatican were reaching a “secret deal” even as he was being kept “completely in the dark.” He told Reuters that “they’re giving the flock into the mouths of the wolves” as he called it “an incredible betrayal.” Zen warned that "the consequences will be tragic and long-lasting, not only for the church in China but for the whole church because it damages the credibility — maybe that's why they might keep the agreement secret."

"He should resign," Zen said of Parolin. "I don't think he has faith. He is just a good diplomat in a very secular, mundane meaning." Zen added that he was placing the blame mostly on Parolin rather than on Francis, saying, "I would not come out to fight the Holy Father, that is my bottom line."

Zen continued battling against Parolin on his personal blog, rejecting the idea that then-Pope Benedict had been secretly pushing for the Vatican-China deal prior to Pope Francis taking over and implementing it.

“Parolin knows he himself is lying. He knows that I know he is a liar. He knows that I will tell everyone that he is a liar,” Zen wrote in October 2020. “He is not just shameless but also daring. What will he not dare to do now? I think he is not even afraid of his conscience. I am afraid he does not even have faith.”

Zen wrote in November 2020 that “Parolin says it is a good agreement, but we have reason to fear that it is a bad one, judging from all the facts before, during, and after the signing of the Agreement. In the past twenty years or so, a group of powers in the Holy See supported the government-controlled Church in China and neglected the ‘underground’ Church" and added that such support was against the direction of Pope JPII and Pope Benedict.

“Pope Francis…has sympathy for the communists. In South America they are often persecuted by the government,” Zen said. “But the communists in China are persecutors of the Church, just like Nazis and Communists in Europe.”

The CCP’s muted response to Francis' death 

The CCPA dedicated just two lines to the death of Francis in April, with nothing on its home page. The CCP-led group wrote, “Pope Francis was called by the Lord at 7:35 a.m. on April 21, 2025 (13:35 Beijing time) at the Domus Santa Marta, at the age of 88. Please pray together, through God's mercy, that Pope Francis may enjoy eternal happiness in heaven.”

Bitter Winter, an online magazine on religious liberty and human rights in China published by CESNUR, the Center for Studies on New Religions and headquartered in Torino, Italy, noted that “much more emphasis was given to celebrating the 76th anniversary of the Communist victory of April 23, 1949, when the People’s Liberation Army captured Nanjing, the capital of the Nationalist government during the Chinese Civil War, and to mourning the red soldiers who died there.”

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said on April 22 that “China expresses condolences over the passing of Pope Francis” and brought up the Sino-Vatican deal, claiming that “in recent years, China and the Vatican have maintained constructive engagement and conducted useful exchanges” and that “the provisional agreement regarding the appointment of bishops between China and the Vatican is smoothly implemented.”

The CCP official sent a signal to any future Pope by claiming that “China stands ready to work with the Vatican for continued improvement of China-Vatican ties.” Asian News reported in April that the CCP-supervised Catholic Church was “promoting the idea that everything must go on as if nothing had happened.”

Unnamed sources told the outlet that, in Shanghai, priests were summoned to ratify the choice of a new auxiliary bishop, and that the same thing happened in Xinxiang as well. The outlet also said that “the method is the usual one” because these decisions were being made by the CCP when there was no longer even the fig leaf of a Pope in Rome."

The outlet added that “it is significant that those responsible for China’s religious policy decided to go ahead anyway, a way of saying that the exceptional moment in the history of the universal Church, with sede vacante, does not concern Catholics in the People's Republic.” 

"Sede vacante" is a Latin phrase meaning "vacant seat" or "empty chair."

Loyalty to CCP, Xi Jinping, and “Sinicization”

The Chinese Catholic Patriotic Association’s official website claims that “as we all know, at the beginning of the founding of the People's Republic of China, Chinese Catholicism was still in a colonial state, and the right to manage the church was in the hands of foreign missionaries,” and thus, “in order to purify the church and spread the gospel, the patriotic priests and faithful believers of the Chinese Catholic Church launched the Chinese Catholic Anti-Imperialist Patriotic Movement from the bottom up.”

The self-proclaimed purpose of the CCPA is to “unite and lead Catholic priests and faithful throughout the country [...] support the leadership of the Communist Party of China and the socialist system [...] and safeguard national sovereignty and church autonomy — autonomy from the Vatican, yes, but loyalty to the CCP.”

The CCP-led 10th National Congress of Catholicism in China was held in August 2022 and was attended by officials from the United Front. The delegates reportedly approved motions to implement “Xi Jinping's new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics…and unite and lead the majority of priests and churches across the country, …insist on independent and self-run churches and democratically run churches, … [and] deeply carry out and continuously innovate the discussion and practice of the sinicization of church theology in China.”

It was reported by Bitter Winter that the United Front organized a “red cultural tour” for Catholic clergy in October 2024, and that it included lectures on the “Resolution of the CCP Central Committee on Further Deepening Reforms and Promoting Modernization with Chinese Characteristics.” 

Contorting the Ten Commandments Chinese-style

The online magazine also said the CCP’s message to the clearly was that “everyone believes that Xi Jinping’s thought on culture is profound, logically rigorous, and of great significance” and that “we must not only persist in learning and understanding it, but also truly learn and apply it and put it into practice.”

The outlet also reported that month that a “Party-Oriented Sermon Exchange Activity” for CCPA clergy attempted to co-op the instruction in the Ten Commandments to “Honor Thy Father” by arguing that CCP “elders” should also be honored, and that “Honor Thy Father” also means “Honor the CCP.”

The CCPA wrote about the “2025 Publicity and Publication Work Conference of the Chinese Catholic Church” held in April with multiple “relevant leaders from the United Front Work Department.” Bishop Huang Bingzhang, the Vice Chairman of the CCPA, delivered a speech at the conference where he “stressed that we must closely focus on the overall situation of united front work, unite and lead the majority of priests and believers, help the healthy inheritance of Catholicism, and jointly promote the process of sinicization of Catholicism.”

The CCPA wrote in February that “the Hubei Provincial Catholic ‘Two Conferences’ organized online and offline tutoring and teaching for clergy in the province to study and implement the spirit of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech during his inspection tour of Hubei.” The group said that “everyone will deeply understand and unify their thoughts and actions with the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the important instructions of General Secretary Xi Jinping” and “practice the sinicization of religion with practical actions.”

The CCP-led Catholic group in January said “the Wuhan Catholic Community Adherence to the Direction of Sinicization of Religion Training Course” was held in order to maintain a high degree of consistency with the Party Central Committee and with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core in terms of ideology, politics, and actions.

Vatican’s pastoral guidelines in China undercut old guard

The pastoral guidelines released by the Vatican in June 2019 seemed to strengthen the position of the CCPA and weaken the underground Catholic Church.

The Vatican noted that the CCP’s rules for Catholic pastors “requires, almost invariably, the signing of a document in which, notwithstanding the commitment assumed by the Chinese authorities to respect also Catholic doctrine, one must declare acceptance, among other things, of the principle of independence, autonomy, and self-administration of the Church in China.”

“On the one hand, the Holy See does not intend to force anyone’s conscience. On the other hand, it considers that the experience of clandestinity is not a normal feature of the Church’s life and that history has shown that Pastors and faithful have recourse to it only amid suffering, in the desire to maintain the integrity of their faith,” the Vatican said. 

“Thus," it continued, the Holy See continues to ask that the civil registration of the clergy take place in a manner that guarantees respect for the conscience and the profound Catholic convictions of the persons involved. Only in that way, in fact, can both the unity of the Church and the contribution of Catholics to the good of Chinese society be fostered.”

Zen responded in a March 2020 blog post that “the most serious problem is not the secret Agreement of September 2018” and that “the ‘Pastoral Guidance’ of 28 June is more blatantly evil, immoral, because it legitimizes a schismatic Church! There is much confusion and contradiction in that document.”

“The worst thing comes from the secret nature of the Agreement: being secret, it became a convenient tool in the hands of the Government to demand everything from the Catholic faithful, e.g. telling the underground to come up and join the Patriotic Association, the independent (schismatic) Church, telling them that it is in the Agreement, it is the will of the Holy Father,” Zen wrote in November 2020.

Republicans and even prominent Democrats object to the Sino-Vatican deal

A number of current and former Trump administration officials, and a few Democrats, have criticized the deal.

Then-Senator Marco Rubio — now Trump’s Secretary of State and National Security Advisor — has criticized the Sino-Vatican deal. “How can the Vatican justify this doctrinally?” Rubio, also a Catholic, tweeted in September 2018. 

“They are giving a government (an atheist one) influence in choosing Bishops which ‘are regarded as transmitters of the apostolic line.’ How does secular (& atheist) interference in that decision not break that line?” 

Brian Burch, the president of Catholic Vote, and the Trump administration’s nominee to be Vatican ambassador, told the Senate in April that “I think it’s important for the Holy See to maintain a posture of pressure, and of applying pressure to the Chinese government around their human rights abuses, particularly their persecution of religious minorities, including Catholics.” Burch added that “I would encourage the Holy See…to resist the idea that a foreign government has any role whatsoever in choosing the leadership of a private religious institution. I do not believe the Church should cede or surrender to any government — China or otherwise — the selection of their bishops.” 

Catholic Vote is a tax-exempt 501(c)4 that describes itself as a community of Americans who believe that the "timeless truths of the Catholic faith are good for America."

Then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Twitter in September 2020 that “the Vatican endangers its moral authority, should it renew the deal.”

Later that month, Pompeo said in a speech that month at the U.S. Embassy to the Vatican that "Nowhere is religious freedom under assault more than it is inside of China today. Nor, of course, have Catholics been spared this wave of repression.” He also said that many countries are “constrained by the realities of world politics,” but argued that “the church is in a different position — earthly considerations shouldn’t discourage principled stances based on eternal truths.” Pompeo also warned that the deal was “compromising” the Vatican’s ability to act with moral clarity.

Thomas Farr of the Religious Freedom Institute testified in November 2018 before the Congressional-Executive Committee on China (CEEC). “The Sino-Vatican Agreement was negotiated and is being implemented in the midst of the most systematic and brutal attempt to control Chinese religious communities since the Cultural Revolution,” Farr said.

“I do not believe the Agreement as I have described it will help the Roman Catholic Church, China’s Catholic minority, or the cause of religious freedom in China. The Chinese know what they are doing," Farr opined.

Farr, who was speaking in front of the CEEC, which was chaired by Rubio at the time, said that “the triumph of Mao and the Communist Revolution in 1949 led to an attempt either to absorb all religion into Communist ideology or to destroy it” — including breaking relations with the Vatican and extending CCP control over Catholics in China. He said that “it could be that the Provisional Agreement reflects a return to the Vatican’s failed Cold War ‘realpolitik’ diplomacy of the 1960s, before it was changed by Pope John Paul II.”

Now-former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi argued in December 2024 that “I have a completely different view" from Francis's approach to China. In an interview with the National Catholic Reporter, she said, "We have, for decades, seen the suffering of Catholics in China. … Why should the Chinese government be having a say in the appointment of bishops? I've talked to some folks here and they're, 'Well, we have to keep up with the times.' What?! I don't get that."

She added by quoting Scripture: "Let me say it this way, 'Thou art Peter, and upon this rock I will build my church.' Every bishop has sprung from that rock. And now, the Chinese government?"

Parolin doubles down on “Sinicization”

The CEEC has defined the “sinicization” of Catholicism and other religions as “a campaign that aims to bring religion in China under closer official control and into conformity with officially sanctioned interpretations of Chinese culture.” The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom assessed that “sinicization… requires the complete loyalty and subordination of recognized religious groups to the CCP, its political ideology, and its policy agenda.”

Nonetheless, Parolin gave an interview with the CCP-run Global Times in May 2019, where he defended the deal and waved away concerns about the CCP’s commitment to the “sinicization” of Catholicism. The Francis ally said that Francis “sees China not only as a great country but also as a great culture, rich in history and wisdom.”

The Global Times asked Parolin about his thoughts on China “carrying out ‘sinicization’ of religions”, including Catholicism. “Inculturation is an essential condition for a sound proclamation of the Gospel which, in order to bear fruit, requires, on the one hand, safeguarding its authentic purity and integrity and, on the other, presenting it according to the particular experience of each people and culture,” Parolin said. 

“These two terms, ‘inculturation’ and ‘sinicization,’ refer to each other without confusion and without opposition: in some ways, they can be complementary and can open avenues for dialogue on the religious and cultural level,” he said.

Zen challenged that view, writing in October that the “'Sinicization' of Catholicism is not what we mean by inculturation. It is the religion of the Communist Party: the first divinity is the country, the party, the party leader.”

CCPA’s Bishop Shen Bin also pushes “Sinicization” of Catholicism

Bishop Shen Bin is the Chairman of the Chinese Catholic Bishops' Conference and a key leader of the CCPA. He is among the most vocal advocates of CCP priorities for Catholicism in China. He became the top CCPA bishop in Shanghai purportedly without the initial knowledge or approval of the Vatican.

EWTN’s Vatican Bureau reported in July 2023 that “Pope Francis has taken steps to rectify the canonical irregularity that arose when Chinese authorities transferred Bishop Shen Bin from Haimen to Shanghai without involving the Holy See.” Francis responded by retroactively accepting the CCP’s promotion of Shen Bin to the bishopric of Shanghai.

Parolin acknowledged that the transfer was “made without the involvement of the Holy See” and that it "seems to disregard the spirit of dialogue and collaboration established between the Vatican and the Chinese authorities over the years and which found a reference point in the Agreement," according to EWTN.

The CCPA noted that Shen Bin gave the opening speech at the “Mainland-Hong Kong Catholic Theology Sharing and Exchange Conference on Sinicization” in November 2022.

“The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of my country was successfully held. General Secretary Xi Jinping once again put forward the requirement of adhering to the direction of sinicization of religions in China and actively guiding religions to adapt to socialist society,” the CCPA said approvingly about Shen Bin’s speech. “After continuous exploration, the Chinese Catholic Church has gradually formed and determined to firmly follow the path of sinicization in pastoral care, evangelization and cultivation that is compatible with socialist society.”

Shen Bin “emphasized that this exchange meeting will be guided by the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, fully implement Xi Jinping's 'Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era,' and adhere to the direction of sinicization of Catholicism in my country” and said that Chinese Catholics must “jointly promote the translation and interpretation of the Bible, and promote the in-depth sinicization of Catholicism in our country.”

Shen Bin said in October 2023 that “we must adhere to the principle of patriotism and love for the Church, adhere to the principle of independence and autonomy in running the Church, adhere to the principle of democracy in running the Church, and adhere to the direction of the Sinicization of the Catholic Church in China.” In the interview with the Shanghai dioscesan magazine, according to Asia News, he called the sicinization of Catholicism “the bottom line, which no one can break, and it is also a high-pressure line, which no one should touch.”

The CCP-allied bishop later spoke alongside Parolin in May 2024 at the Pontifical Urban University on the Janiculum Hill overlooking St. Peter’s Basilica.

“The policy of religious freedom implemented by the Chinese government has no interest in changing the Catholic faith but only hopes that the Catholic clergy and faithful will defend the interests of the Chinese people and free themselves from the control of foreign powers,” Shen Bin falsely claimed in his speech according to EWTN Vatican. “Today the Chinese people are carrying out the great rebirth of the Chinese nation in a global way with Chinese-style modernization, and the Catholic Church in China must move in the same direction, following a path of ‘sinicization’ that is in line with Chinese society and culture today.”

Zen wrote in November 2020 that “many bishops are legitimate only because you put on them the label ‘legitimate’, but they openly profess their loyalty to the State authority according to the principle of Sinicization, i.e., absolute obedience to the Chinese Communist Party.”

Benedict Rogers, the CEO of Hong Kong Watch, wrote in Foreign Policy magazine last week that “a Pope who often spoke about injustice and persecution around the world failed to speak on the atrocities in China. Although vocal about Sudan, Yemen, Gaza, and Myanmar, his silence about the persecution of Uyghurs, Tibetans, Falun Gong practitioners, and Christians across China was deafening, and a conscious choice to look away.” Hong Kong Watch is a UK-registered charity founded in 2017 that describes itself as "consisting of Hong Kongers and friends of Hong Kong, working closely with Hong Kong community groups in the diaspora."

“There were numerous issues that directly concerned the church but where the Pope still failed to comment, many of them linked to the dismantling of Hong Kong’s freedoms. He never prayed publicly for Hong Kong’s most prominent Catholic political prisoner, Jimmy Lai, nor met with Lai’s son Sebastien,” Rogers wrote. 

“When Hong Kong’s bishop emeritus, Cardinal Joseph Zen, traveled to Rome for an audience in 2020, it was never granted. What could explain this? It all hinges on the secret concordat the Vatican signed with the Chinese Communist Party in 2018, giving Beijing a say in the appointment of Catholic bishops in China—a concordat regularly violated by Beijing in its continuing persecution of Catholics and its unilateral appointments of some Catholic bishops,” he explained.

Harassment and persecution intensified over past half-decade 

The CECC’s annual report for 2019 said that, despite the Sino-Vatican deal last year, “local Chinese authorities subjected Catholic believers in China to increasing persecution by demolishing churches, removing crosses, and continuing to detain underground clergy.” The CECC also said that “scholars and international rights groups have described religious persecution in China over the last year to be of an intensity not seen since the Cultural Revolution.” This has been ramped up in the years since.

U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) Commissioner David Curry told the Washington Examiner in November 2022 that “it is likely that the Sino-Vatican deal has been used by the Chinese government to justify its crackdown on underground Catholics who refuse to join the state-controlled Chinese Catholic Patriotic Association.”

The USCIRF made similar warnings in 2021 by making clear that “Chinese authorities continued to harass, detain, and torture underground Catholic bishops” despite the Vatican deal.

It was reported by Recorded Future in 2020 that “the Vatican and the Catholic Diocese of Hong Kong were among several Catholic Church-related organizations that were targeted by RedDelta, a Chinese-state-sponsored threat activity group.” The outlet also said that “the targeting of entities related to the Catholic Church is likely indicative of CCP objectives in consolidating control over the “underground” Catholic Church, ‘sinicizing religions’ in China, and diminishing the perceived influence of the Vatican within China’s Catholic community.”

The USCIRF's 2022 Annual Report assessed that “despite the Vatican-China agreement on bishop appointments, authorities continued to harass and detain underground Catholic priests who refuse to join the state-controlled Catholic association.”

Last year's USCIRF Annual Report said that despite the Sino-Vatican deal, “authorities continued to forcibly disappear and convict underground Catholic priests… who refused to join the state-controlled Chinese Catholic Patriotic Association." The USCIRF sounded similar alarms in 2023 about the CCP installing bishops without Vatican approval and repressing Catholics in China.

The USCIRF's 2025 Annual Report found that “religious freedom conditions in China remained among the worst in the world” and that “Chinese authorities detained, forcibly disappeared, or refused to disclose the whereabouts of underground Catholic clergy who declined to join the state-controlled Catholic organization.”

“This report shows that religious repression of the Catholic Church in China has intensified since the 2018 China-Vatican agreement on the appointment of bishops,” a Hudson Institute analysis concluded in October 2024. The analysis was written by the USCIRF's Nina Shay.

That analysis identifies and discusses the ongoing cases of ten Vatican-approved Catholic bishops in China whose persecution has continued or worsened since September 2018. "The suppression of the ministries of a significant part of that church’s faithful leadership also denies religious freedom to millions of Chinese Catholic faithful. It represents a repression of the Chinese Catholic Church at large. The Chinese government’s persecution of the Chinese Catholic Church is targeted against the hierarchs who resist Chinese Communist Party control over religious matters,” Shay wrote.

Shay's report also noted that “Beijing targeted these ten bishops after they opposed the Chinese Catholic Patriotic Association, which requires its members to pledge independence from the Holy See.”

An analysis by Bitter Winter in February stated, “In several cases, we see the following scheme at work, which is unlikely to correspond to the deal. First, the CCP ‘elects’ a bishop and publicly announces the news. Second, for several months there is no reaction from the Holy See, which strongly suggests it had not previously been informed of the election. Third, after a hiatus of months the Pope ‘appoints’ the bishop — whose election the CCP had already announced months earlier. Fourth, a consecration ceremony is held where the Papal mandate is not mentioned at all as if it were irrelevant, while a letter of approval is read by the ‘Bishops’ Conference’ of the Patriotic Catholic Church."

Francis and his allies defended the deal with the CCP and praised Chinese people

Francis repeatedly praised China in general terms, and defended his deal with the CCP. Many of his allies in the Vatican did the same. Francis told the Asia Times in January 2016 that “for me, China has always been a reference point of greatness, a great country.” He added, “The Western world, the Eastern world, and China all have the capacity to maintain the balance of peace and the strength to do so. We must find the way, always through dialogue; there is no other way.”

Marcelo Sànchez Sorondo, the Chancellor of the Vatican’s Pontifical Academy of Sciences, went as far as to claim in February 2018 that “right now, those who best implement the Church's social doctrine are the Chinese.”

In an interview which he gave after visiting Beijing for the first time, Sorondo claimed that “they [the Chinese] seek the common good, they subordinate things to the general good," according to La Stampa, an Italian newspaper. According to Google Translate, he claimed that China agreed with the Vatican about “defending the dignity of the person" and that, on the alleged issue of climate change, China was “assuming a moral leadership that others have neglected.”

Sorondo added that “we can't think that today's China is the China of John Paul II or the Russia of the Cold War.”

An unnamed Vatican source told the Jesuit America Magazine in September 2018 that the deal “will be a historic breakthrough.” Sources purportedly told the outlet that the Vatican knew that it was “not a good agreement” but that it was the only one possible at that moment. The online magazine said in September 2020, just ahead of the concord's renewal, that China insisted on the deal’s secrecy and the Vatican may have agreed to that because, as one source told them, “While it’s not a good agreement, it’s better than no agreement, and there’s hope it can be improved.”

No pope has ever been to China, but Francis flew over China's airspace — a largely restricted zone — in November 2019, and sent a message to “His Excellency Xi Jinping” as he did so, saying, “I send cordial greetings to Your Excellency as I fly over China on my way to Japan. I assure you of my prayers for the nation and its people. Invoking upon all of you abundant blessings of peace and joy.”

The Vatican said in October 2020 when renewing the deal that “the Holy See considers the initial application of the agreement — which is of great ecclesial and pastoral value — to have been positive.”

In October 2020, when asked about the persecution of Christians in China, the Catholic News Agency reported that Parolin responded: "But, what persecutions? […] You have to use the words correctly. There are regulations that are imposed and which concern all religions, and certainly also concern the Catholic Church."

"For the dialogue to bear more consistent fruit it is necessary to continue it,” Parolin argued in October 2020. “It is no mystery to anyone that the Holy See, in the name of the entire Catholic Church and – I believe – for the benefit of all humanity, he hopes to open a space for dialogue with the authorities of the People’s Republic of China, in which, once past misunderstandings have been overcome, we can work together for the good of the Chinese people and for peace in the world.”

In February 2022, Monsignor Javier Herrera Corona, an unofficial representative in Hong Kong and head of the Holy See Study Mission in Hong Kong, reportedly “said what blocks Catholics in the underground church is a psychological barrier resulting from being suddenly asked to change their five-decades-old perception of the state-run Church. … It is hard for Chinese Catholics to accept that the Vatican and the communist government are collaborating in appointing bishops, Monsignor Javier said.”

Dialogue and diplomacy

A member of the Vatican involved in negotiations with China reportedly told ACI Stampa in September 2022 that “the Holy See extends a hand, but it knows that on the other side there is a knife, and the blade is directed toward our hand. Every time we reach out our hand, our hand bleeds. And yet, we must continue to extend our hand.”

“There is a bilateral Vatican-Chinese commission that is going well, slowly, because the Chinese pace is slow, they have an eternity to go forward: they are a people of endless patience,” Francis told reporters in September 2022. “It is not easy to understand the Chinese mentality, but it should be respected, I always respect this. And here in the Vatican, there is a dialogue commission that is going well, chaired by Cardinal Parolin, and he is the person right now who knows the most about China and dialogue with the Chinese. It is a slow process, but steps forward are always being made.”

“Dialogue is the way of the best diplomacy. With China I have opted for the way of dialogue. It is slow, it has its failures, it has its successes, but I cannot find another way,” Francis said in an interview with America Magazine in November 2022. “And I want to underline this: The Chinese people are a people of great wisdom and deserve my respect and my admiration. I take off my hat to them. And for this reason, I try to dialogue, because it is not that we are going to conquer people. No! There are Christians there. They have to be cared for, so that they may be good Chinese and good Christians."

When in Mongolia in September 2023, Francis said, "These two brother bishops: the emeritus of Hong Kong and the current bishop of Hong Kong, I would like to take advantage of your presence to send warm greetings to the noble people of China. To the entire population, I wish you all the best and go forward. Progress always. And to Chinese Catholics, I ask you to be good Christians and good citizens. Thank you."

The Vatican announced in October 2024 that the deal with China was being renewed for another four years, with the Vatican contending that “the Vatican Party remains dedicated to furthering the respectful and constructive dialogue with the Chinese Party, in view of the further development of bilateral relations for the benefit of the Catholic Church in China and the Chinese people as a whole.”

“There is no ‘magic’ solution, but the agreement represents a journey—a slow and challenging journey that, in my opinion, is beginning to bear some fruit,” Parolin claimed in January. “These fruits might not yet be visible, but they will likely become more evident as trust and the ability to engage in dialogue between the parties grow.”

Vatican never condemned Zen's arrest, but others did

Zen was prosecuted by the Chinese government-dominated authorities of the city following his decades of harsh criticism of Beijing’s religious persecution, its well-documented human rights abuses, and its growing repression.

The 90-year-old Cardinal, along with five co-defendants, according to The Standard, was arrested and charged under Hong Kong’s Societies Ordinance in May 2022 for allegedly failing to properly register the now-defunct pro-democracy 612 Humanitarian Relief Fund, which provided legal and medical assistance in 2019 and 2020 to jailed protesters who objected to the Chinese government’s increasing grip on the former British colony. The CCP forced the 612 Fund to shut down in 2021.

Zen was also reportedly arrested and investigated for “collusion with foreign forces” under Hong Kong’s so-called National Security Law, and if charged and convicted under it, he could receive a life sentence. 

The Vatican’s response to Zen’s arrest and prosecution was muted as Francis sought to renew the Sino-Vatican deal, with the Catholic Church and the CCP announcing another two-year extension later in 2022.

“The Holy See has learned with concern the news of Cardinal Zen’s arrest and is following the evolution of the situation with extreme attention,” the Vatican press office said at the time.

Parolin said in May 2022 that he was “very saddened” by the arrest of Zen and that “I would like to express my closeness to the cardinal, who was freed and treated well." Parolin said Zen’s arrest should not be seen as “a disavowal” of the Sino-Vatican deal, and added that “the most concrete hope is that initiatives such as this one will not complicate the already complex and not simple path of dialogue.”

Francis said in September 2022 that “I do not identify” with the idea of “China as undemocratic…because it's such a complex country," Francis added, Yes, it is true that there are things that seem undemocratic to us, that is true. Cardinal Zen is going to trial these days, I think. And he says what he feels, and you can see that there are limitations there. More than qualifying, because it is difficult, and I do wish to qualify, they are impressions, and I try to support the path of dialogue.”

Then-White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, by comparison, quickly condemned the arrest in May 2022. “So, freedom of expression are critical to prosperous and secure societies,” Jean-Pierre told reporters. “We call on PRC and Hong Kong authorities to cease targeting Hong Kong’s advocates and to immediately release who have been unjustly detained and charged, like the Cardinal Joseph Zen Ze-kiun and others arrested today.”

A bipartisan group of senators pushed a resolution in 2022 which “condemns the arrest of Cardinal Zen by the Hong Kong authorities at the behest of the Chinese Communist Party” and “calls for all charges to be immediately dropped against Cardinal Zen.” Then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wrote in mid-May 2022 that “Beijing launched its latest assault” on freedom by arresting Zen.

Zen did not back down in the wake of pleading not guilty to the charges. “Martyrdom is normal in our church,” the cardinal said during a late May 2022 homily. “We may not have to do that, but we may have to bear some pain and steel ourselves for our loyalty to our faith.”

Vatican doesn't advocate for Jimmy Lai

Jimmy Lai, the former Hong Kong media mogul, Catholic, and outspoken pro-democracy voice, was convicted on fraud charges in October 2022, and was already serving jail time for his role in Hong Kong’s protests in 2019 and for attending a 2020 vigil for those killed by the Chinese government during the Tiananmen Square protest clampdown in 1989.

Lai also faced charges in 2022 related to “colluding with foreign forces” and putting together “seditious publications” — and he faces potential life in prison, according to NBC News. Ten Bishops from around the world signed a petition in November 2023 calling upon the CCP-led Hong Kong government “to immediately and unconditionally release Jimmy Lai. Mr. Lai’s persecution for supporting pro-democracy causes through his newspaper and in other forums has gone on long enough.”

The signatories included Archbishop Timothy Dolan and Bishop Robert Barron of the United States, both of whom were named by Trump to the newly-created Religious Liberty Commission on Thursday.

UK lawyers at the internationally-known human rights law firm Doughty Street Chambers, who published the Bishop's petition, and are Lai's lawyers, told The Guardian last February that they have been subject to surveillance, hacking and rape threats.

Lai’s son, Sebastien, said in November 2024 that “I do wish the Vatican called for his release as well and helped secure it, but at the end of the day it doesn’t change the strength of my father’s faith and his clarity in what is right.” He said the Vatican could “definitely” play a role in freeing his father — but it hasn’t.

The Vatican and its recognition of Taiwan

Taiwanese President William Lai expressed “my sincerest condolences on behalf of the people of Taiwan to the Catholic community and everyone mourning the passing of His Holiness Pope Francis” in an April tweet. “We will continue to draw inspiration from his lifelong commitment to peace, global solidarity, and caring for those in need.”

Most recent estimates say Taiwan is home to fewer than 300,000 Catholics.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry was asked on April 22 whether a future pope would only be allowed to visit China if the Vatican first broke off diplomatic ties with Taiwan, and CCP spokesman Guo Jiakun said that “Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory, and the government of the People’s Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China. More and more countries have come to recognize and abide by the one-China principle. We hope relevant countries will see where the arc of history bends and come back to the right path of upholding the one-China principle.”

“The Holy See maintains diplomatic relations with Taiwan,” Brian Burch, the Trump administration’s Vatican ambassador nominee, told the Senate in April. “I understand this to be extremely important because, of course, China’s ambitions with Taiwan will likely be tempered by the posture of the rest of the world… I will insist… that the Holy See maintain that strong relationship with Taiwan.”

The Taiwanese Foreign Ministry has long criticized the Sino-Vatican deal.

“As the PRC government has stepped up measures to persecute local Catholic communities, such as further suppressing believers who resist being controlled by the Chinese Communist Party and forcing many bishops to join the CCP-controlled Chinese Patriotic Catholic Association, religious freedom, and human rights in China have continued to deteriorate,” the Taiwanese government said in October 2020. “This so-called ‘sinicization of religion’ in the PRC has become ‘nationalization of religion,’ even characterized by extensive CCP indoctrination. With the CCP dictating all matters, Catholics in the PRC are facing serious challenges to their faith and conscience.”

When asked if the Vatican was willing to end its diplomatic relations with Taiwan at the request of the CCP, Parolin said in a September 2022 interview with Il Messaggero that “for now everything remains as it is.”

Uncertain future for Chinese Catholics

The papal enclave will begin in Vatican City on May 7, and the next pope will likely be elected within just a few days. The Vatican has confirmed that 133 cardinals will participate in the selection of who is believed to be the apostolic successor to St. Peter.

If black smoke emerges from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel, it means a round of voting has ended without a pope being selected. When white smoke emerges, it means the next Holy Father has been named. The world will not know who the next pope is until he emerges on the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica to speak to the crowd assembled at St. Peter’s Square.

The selection of the next pope is important for the estimated 1.4 billion Catholics worldwide, but amidst Xi Jinping’s ongoing “sinicization of religion” campaign and his crackdown on Christianity in China, the millions of Catholics living under CCP rule will likely watch especially closely.

Whether the next pope is tied to the Sino-Vatican deal — like its architect and advocate, Cardinal Parolin — or whether the next pope had no involvement in it whatsoever, the pope who follows Francis will face a church in crisis in China.