Trump goes on offensive over Epstein files, as voters appear unwilling to accept ordeal as a 'hoax'

President Donald Trump this week reiterated his stance that the Epstein files were a “hoax” as Democrats released emails linking him to the late billionaire, but polling suggests the public is not satisfied with his assertions and his handling of the matter sparked the initial decline in his approval rating.

Trump campaigned on releasing the so-called “client list,” a purported master document of the famous and powerful people to whom Jeffrey Epstein allegedly trafficked under-aged girls. His administration, however, has made a total about-face on the issue and has increasingly called the entire matter an outright “hoax.” 

Attorney General Pam Bondi initially attempted to release additional data in a now-notorious episode in which she provided influencers with largely public information.

Since that fiasco, however, the administration has remained relatively tight-lipped, and Trump has lamented that the issue has not faded from public concern. 

Nevertheless, the refusal of voters to let the matter go has somewhat forced his hand. Democrats, in recent weeks, have released emails seemingly linking Trump to Epstein, a wealthy financier and convicted sex offender who died in jail in 2019 awaiting trial on similar charges. In response, Trump on Friday announced that he would direct Bondi to investigate Epstein’s ties to major Democratic figures.

"This is another Russia, Russia, Russia Scam, with all arrows pointing to the Democrats. Records show that these men, and many others, spent large portions of their life with Epstein, and on his 'Island.' Stay tuned!!!" he posted on Truth Social.

Whether Trump likes it or not, the issue is likely to come to a public vote on the House floor due to the success of a bipartisan measure known as a discharge petition and co-sponsored by Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie that drew support from some fellow House Republicans, despite the White House’s efforts to sway them. 

The ‘canary in the coal mine’

Rasmussen Reports pollster Mark Mitchell this week called the Epstein issue the “canary in the coal mine,” warning Trump to reverse course or risk alienating supporters. He has further pointed to a noticeable drop in support for Trump among independents since the administration backed off from pursuing the matter.

Though Trump’s approval rating fluctuated in the early months of his term, public opinion of his performance started its continuous decline in mid-July, following the leak of an FBI memo that insisted there was no master client list of people to whom Jeffrey Epstein allegedly trafficked young women. The unsigned memo went public in early July and largely contradicted the prominent theories about Epstein’s operation.

"This systematic review revealed no incriminating 'client list,'” the memo read. “There was also no credible evidence found that Epstein blackmailed prominent individuals as part of his actions. We did not uncover evidence that could predicate an investigation against uncharged third parties."

On July 7, the day the memo became public, Trump enjoyed an average approval rating of 46.5%, according to RealClearPolitics. His disapproval at the time stood at 50.1%. As of Nov. 14, however, those figures fell to 42.3% approval and 54.7% disapproval.

To be sure, those figures represent overall approval and represent voter sentiments on other issues, but polling on Epstein specifically suggested that the government’s determination and Trump’s rejection of the issue’s merits played a significant role.

Voters aren’t buying it

A late July Reuters/Ipsos survey, for instance, found that 69% of U.S. adults believed the government was hiding the Epstein client list, including 62% of Republicans. The administration, for its part, did little to assuage concerns. Trump himself also fumed over his own supporters demanding answers on the matter, saying at the time that “my PAST supporters have bought into this 'bullshit,' hook, line, and sinker.”

Big Data Pollster Richard Barris highlighted that the administration could have easily avoided a prolonged scandal by simply releasing the files as promised.

“Democrats are now starting to selectively release emails from the Epstein Files. Because he did not listen at the time, it's going to look really bad for Donald Trump, fair or not,” he opined. “This was easily avoidable.”

Moving forward

The House of Representatives will hold a vote next week on Massie’s resolution, which would force the Department of Justice to release all documents related to the Epstein case. Trump and his associates tried to prevent the discharge petition from forcing the vote, but were unsuccessful.

The measure is expected to pass and will still need to clear the Senate to reach Trump’s desk, which Massie insists will force him to either acquiesce or go on the record vetoing the bill. Such a move would likely hurt Trump politically, however, as the public is already up in arms over his handling of the case.

An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll in late September found that 20% of U.S. adults approved of Trump’s handling of the Epstein case, while 77% overall said the administration should release the files. A separate YouGov/Yahoo News survey in July showed Trump with a mere 8% approval on the issue.

The New York Times average of polls for Nov. 14 showed Trump with a 41% approval rating. A pollster for the newspaper points out Trump's approval rating has "slowly fallen" over the past several months and attributes the decline, at least in part, to the state of the U.S. economy. 

Ben Whedon is the Chief Political Correspondent at Just the News. Follow him on X.