Election Day 2025: parties seek bellwether victories, voters in CA weigh partisan redistricting

The Republican and Democratic Parties look to Election Day 2025 as a bellwether for their national chances in the upcoming midterms and are making their final pushes to get their candidates across the finish line in Virginia and New Jersey. 

Both parties are looking to the races as a referendum on President Donald Trump’s second term in order to glean how well both parties may expect to perform in next year’s midterm elections. 

Also on the ballot in California, Governor Gavin Newsom’s effort to secure voter approval for redrawing his state’s federal House districts to advantage Democrats in retaliation for Republican redistricting pushes in conservative states. The measure, if approved, could also impact each party’s fight to control the U.S. House of Representatives next year.  

Virginia is likely to go to Spanberger

Though hard fought, the Virginia gubernatorial race looks likely to go to Democrats, flipping control of the Richmond Governor’s Mansion after Glenn Youngkin’s surprise victory four years ago. According to the latest polling data, Democratic former Rep. Abigail Spanberger is poised to win by a sizable margin. However, in the downballot races, Republicans are within striking distance, not in small part due to the scandal-ridden Democratic attorney general candidate. 

According to The Hill, “Heading into Election Day, Democrat Abigail Spanberger has solidified her status as the frontrunner in the race for Governor,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, in a statement. “A sign of Spanberger’s growing strength is among male voters, a group that was split last month but now breaks for her by six points, 52% to 46%. These voters backed Governor Youngkin by about 12 points in 2021.”

Despite the full-throated effort on behalf of Earle-Sears coming into Election Day, most final polls show that the Republican lieutenant governor has a steep hill to climb. In the ten most recent polls of the gubernatorial race, Spanberger leads Earle-Sears by an average of about 10-points, well outside the margin of error. 

Despite the fact that the race has tightened significantly compared to earlier polls, Earle-Sears has struggled to close the gap completely. The Republicans had hoped a scandal-ridden Democratic candidate for attorney general would drag down the whole ticket, but Spanberger appears as strong as ever. 

The downballot races are much closer, however. Jason Miyares, the state’s incumbent Republican attorney general, is virtually tied with his opponent, former Democratic Delegate Jay Jones.

Jones has been mired in public scrutiny since his August 2022 text messages to a colleague were revealed, appearing to show him supporting violence against a political opponent in the Virginia House of Delegates. 

In one text, he said he would pick a political opponent to receive a “bullet” over two of the world’s most prolific genocidal leaders, Adolf Hitler and Pol Pot. “Three people, two bullets. Gilbert, Hitler and Pol Pot. Gilbert gets two bullets to the head.” His comments appeared to reference then-House Speaker Todd Gilbert, R.

Jones has since apologized for this, and other, questionable text messages that were made public. “Like all people, I’ve sent text messages that I regret, and I believe that violent rhetoric has no place in our politics,” Jones said, after the messages were first reported. 

Regardless, the messages have been a drag to Jones’ campaign and Miyares has gained significant ground. Some of the most recent polls show Miyares leading Jones by anywhere from one to eight points after trailing Jones earlier this year by about five. 

New Jersey neck-and-neck

In New Jersey, the two-time Republican governor candidate Jack Ciattarelli is polling neck-in-neck with his Democratic opponent in a state that has reliably gone blue for several years, though Republicans often fare better in gubernatorial races there. 

But, experts warn that both states should be considered only “imperfect” bellwethers given their electoral histories. Victory for one party or another in the off-year races rarely predicts midterm performances in any discernible pattern, the data show. According to NorthJersey.com, their latest polls in the NJ governor race predict a Mikie Sherrill win over Jack Ciattarelli, although a recent poll shows either candidate could pull out the win on or shortly after Election Day, when results will be official.

Ciattarelli has closed in on Sherrill as the state heads into Election Day. The most recent poll shows Sherrill leading 48%-46% just days out from the election after leading Ciattarelli by as many as 8 points in September, the data show.

Sherrill has faced questions surrounding a cheating scandal that rocked her graduating class at the U.S. Naval Academy. Sherrill did not walk at her graduation ceremony that year after being caught up in the scandal. The Democratic candidate claims that it was a punishment for refusing to come forward when she knew classmates were cheating.  

According to the New York Post, her story has changed multiple times, which throws more fuel into the fire when questioning her account. While there is no conclusive proof either way, the allegations have put a drag on her campaign.

Sherrill also faced allegations that she violated the STOCK Act while she was in Congress over a failure to disclose her husband’s stock trades, Business Insider reported.

Ciattarelli is looking to recapture the governor’s office for Republicans after his unsuccessful but narrowly-lost bid to win the office in 2021. That year, Ciattarelli overperformed expectations and won 48% of the vote in the state. He narrowly lost to incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, who received 51.2% of the vote. With that loss, Murphy became the first Democrat governor to win reelection in 44 years in that state. 

Trump on the hustings

Nevertheless, President Trump has thrown his weight behind the Republicans in both races, hoping to secure wins to burnish his record. On Monday, the president hosted tele-rallies for Republicans running in both states. He previously held one tele-rally for Ciattarelli but has not done so for the Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate, Winsome Earle-Sears, Virginia’s incumbent lieutenant governor.  

The president has also stepped up his support for the Republican candidates in recent days by slamming their Democratic opponents.  

“Why would anyone vote for New Jersey and Virginia Gubernatorial Candidates, Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger, when they want transgender for everybody, men playing in women’s sports, High Crime, and the most expensive Energy prices almost anywhere in the World?” Trump wrote on Truth Social Sunday. “VOTE REPUBLICAN for massive Energy Cost reductions, large-scale Tax Cuts, and basic Common Sense!”

Yet, election watchers warn that Virginia and New Jersey’s status as bellwethers should be taken with a grain of salt. “It will be very tempting to use the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races as predictors for next year’s midterms,” wrote The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. 

“But a look at these races over the last several decades and how they compared to what happened in the following year’s midterm should provide some caution against doing so,” the center wrote. The data going back to 1965 show that though gubernatorial results the prior year sometimes predicted midterm results, there is no discernible pattern to make such a prediction.    

California’s redistricting push: Prop. 50

Also hanging in the balance on Tuesday is California Governor Gavin Newsom’s effort to redraw his state’s House districts ahead of the 2026 midterms to secure a greater Democratic advantage as retaliation for similar Republican efforts across conservative states like Texas to rebalance the maps in their favor. 

The proposition, labeled Proposition 50, that voters will decide whether to approve is clearly geared towards retaliation for Texas’ redistricting that the state legislature approved earlier this year. Noticeably, the ballot language is partisan. 

The ballot measure, which offers a simple "YES" or "NO" response, reads, "AUTHORIZES TEMPORARY CHANGES TO CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT MAPS IN RESPONSE TO TEXAS' PARTISAN REDISTRICTING. LEGISLATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT."

The ballot measure description reads: "Requires temporary use of new congressional district maps through 2030. Directs independent Citizens Redistricting Commission to resume enacting congressional district maps in 2031. Establishes policy supporting nonpartisan redistricting commissions nationwide. Fiscal Impact: One-time costs to counties of up to a few million dollars statewide to update election material to reflect new congressional district maps." 

So far, millions of dollars have been spent on Prop. 50 advertising in California by Democratic megadonors and Republican opponents alike. The latest polls suggest that the advertising may be working for Democrats. 

The Public Policy Institute of California's most recent poll shows 56% of voters would vote yes on Prop 50, to 43% who would vote no. This is a reversal from early polling that suggested voters were poised to reject the proposition. A clear majority of 64% of voters in an August University of California Berkeley/Politico poll supported maintaining the current redistricting commission.