Redistricting battle comes down to Florida after Democratic victory in Virginia referendum

After Virginia Democrats successfully convinced voters to approve a constitutionally questionable redistricting push to seize more U.S. congressional seats in the state, Florida is now in the spotlight. 

In the Sunshine State, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis is spearheading an effort to redraw the state’s congressional districts before the midterm elections. Earlier this year, he called a special session of the state legislature to consider redrawing the maps. 

Now, Republicans see it as an opportunity to cancel out the likely gains that Democrats won in Virginia. Following that vote, allies of President Donald Trump have urged Florida to move forward with its plans before the midterm elections.   

A state that is "Ruby Red"

“To my friends in Tallahassee: in a state that is ruby red, it’s time to respond to what we saw tonight in Virginia with a redistricting plan that reflects Florida’s true partisan lean—and adds 3–4 GOP seats to our supermajority,” former Trump White House spokesman Harrison Fields posted to X shortly after the Virginia referendum. 

“Virginia is a purple state being drawn as deep blue. Florida should draw a map that’s even redder—and get it passed ASAP,” he added. “It’s time to redistrict Florida,” former Trump chief of staff Mark Meadows posted to X. “Over TWO MILLION Americans have moved to the Sunshine State since 2020, and the old congressional maps no longer reflect the state.” He added, “Gov. DeSantis supports this effort and has convened a special session. Now […] the legislature need[s] to get it over the finish line!”

DeSantis delayed the special session until next week, ostensibly to give his office more time to propose a new map. He has not publicly linked his redistricting push next week to Virginia’s referendum, and even denied there is a connection. 

When asked last week about the timing of the special session, DeSantis said he has "no idea what the relevance of Virginia" would be to his decision to postpone the session. 

The governor, however, argues that the state should be prepared to redraw its districts if the Supreme Court delivers a ruling in the landmark redistricting case it is currently considering, which could radically change how the Voting Rights Act governs state maps. 

“Every Florida resident deserves to be represented fairly and constitutionally,” DeSantis said in January when he first floated redrawing the maps. He said that adjusting the state’s congressional districts was intended to respond to an “upcoming U.S. Supreme Court ruling.”

Currently, however, the Supreme Court has not yet issued its ruling in the much-anticipated case, Louisiana v. Callais. Conservatives hope that the court will find race-based congressional districts unconstitutional under the Voting Rights Act, allowing them to draw out the special districts in their states currently represented by Democrats. 

The Voting Rights Act was passed during the Civil Rights era to combat rampant discrimination against black Americans in the South in voting laws. Section 2 prohibits race-based discrimination in state voting laws. By the 1980s, the courts applied Section 2 to the redistricting process to prevent vote dilution of minority groups, giving rise to majority-minority districts.

Jeffries: “Maximum warfare, everywhere, all the time”

A favorable ruling for Republicans would open the door for southern U.S. states to eliminate nearly ten Democratic seats, which could put Republicans back in the lead in the redistricting fight. Florida currently has five majority-minority districts, two of which are represented by Democrats.

House Minority leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., also sees Florida as the next key battleground in the redistricting war ahead of the midterm elections. On Tuesday, he sharply warned Florida Republicans directly not to pursue redistricting after the Democratic victory in the Virginia referendum. “If Florida Republicans proceed with this illegal scheme, they will only create more prime pick-up opportunities for Democrats, just as they did with Trump’s dummymander in Texas,” he said in a statement shared by Punchbowl News. 

“We will aggressively target for defeat Mario Díaz-Balart, Maria Elvira Salazar, Carlos Giménez, Kat Cammack, Anna Paulina Luna, Laurel Lee, Cory Mills and Brian Mast. We are prepared to take them all on, and we are prepared to win.” 

“Maximum warfare, everywhere, all the time,” the Democratic leader added.

DeSantis was unbothered by the threats. 

“Please! Be my guest! I will pay you to come campaign! I’ll put you up in the Florida governor’s mansion. We’ll take you fishing. Nothing could be better for Florida Republicans than to see Hakeem Jeffries everywhere around this state,” DeSantis said at a press conference on Wednesday, responding to Jeffries’ comments. 

Republicans in the state, however, may not be as eager as the governor’s office to push through a mid-decade change to the state’s already Republican-friendly maps. Some are reportedly worried that redrawing the boundaries could make some districts more vulnerable to a Democratic wave during the midterm elections, and end up costing the party rather than rewarding it. 

“I think the Legislature needs to be very cognizant of the fact that if they get too aggressive … you could put incumbent members at risk,” said Congressman Greg Steube, a Republican, according to Politico. 

State legislative leaders have taken a cautious approach to the plans, saying that they are awaiting the governor’s proposed map changes, but declining to propose any themselves, contrary to what DeSantis had said. 

“Ultimately, they’re going to have to consider maps,” DeSantis said. “I can pass judgment on it. Obviously, we worked on a map last time; (we) can do it again.” Florida Senate President Ben Albritton said that his chamber is “not drafting or producing a map for introduction during the special session.” 

“The Governor is the one that asked for this in order to do redistricting and we expect him to produce a map,” Florida House Speaker Daniel Perez said. “Obviously it wasn’t ready for this week and so he had to postpone it. So you know, next week, I’m sure we’ll see a map and our body will vote on it and see what happens in the Senate.”