Trump touts low Christmas season gasoline prices, and analysts say they should hold into 2026

In his address to the nation from the White House Thursday, President Donald Trump commented on the lower gas prices travelers will enjoy this Christmas. Under the Biden administration, gasoline prices rose 30% to 50%, Trump said. 

“Now, under our leadership, they’re all coming down. And they’re coming down fast,” Trump said, referring to prices for a range of goods and services including gasoline. 

Trump stated that under the previous administration, regulations strangled the oil and gas industry. He said as a result of his declaration of a national energy emergency upon taking office, gasoline prices are now under $2.50 per gallon over much of the country. 

“For years, the radical left democrats exploited the green energy scam as an excuse to funnel many billions of dollars into their own massive slush funds,” Trump said. 

Strong oil supplies, prices hit 2020 lows

According to AAA, the average gasoline price in the U.S. was at $2.88 per gallon on Friday. According to the live price on GasBuddy, which uses crowdsourcing data, American motorists were paying an average $2.87 per gallon on Friday morning. 

These are the cheapest gasoline prices consumers have seen in December since 2020, AAA reported. GasBuddy predicts gasoline prices will hit around $2.79 per gallon on Christmas Day. 

David Blackmon, author of the “Energy Absurdities” Substack and an analyst with more than 40 years of experience in the oil and gas industry, told Just the News that the low prices are a function of global crude oil prices, over which the president doesn’t have a lot of control. However, he said, the Trump administration’s friendlier regulatory environment is contributing to the boon for consumers. 

“There's no question that the continued ability of the domestic U.S. industry to raise overall production in the United States has contributed to the lower cost environment,” Blackmon said.

Tim Stewart, president of the U.S. Oil and Gas Association, told Just the News that American families will ultimately be the beneficiaries of the regulatory environment under the Trump administration. 

“It's amazing what our industry can do when the regulatory burdens are lifted.  It stimulates technology investment and provides a degree of certainty that allows us to produce more with less. I can honestly say our industry is doing our part to make life more affordable for Americans,” Stewart said. 

Not all states' citizens benefit

Not all Americans will be enjoying gas prices below $3 per gallon this holiday. New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New England had gas prices over or near $3 per gallon on Friday, according to AAA. On the other side of the country, drivers in California, Arizona, Nevada, Oregon and Washington were paying more than $3 per gallon. 

Alaska drivers were averaging $3.59 per gallon on Friday, while Hawaii drivers were paying $4.47 per gallon. The only state besides Hawaii, which imports all its gasoline, with average gas prices above $4 per gallon is California, at $4.32 per gallon. Oklahoma had the lowest gas price at $2.34 per gallon. 

According to the Energy Information Administration, various factors impact different gasoline prices in different regions of the country. Being further away from the supply adds to shipping costs. The Gulf of America — which is rich in refineries, ports and pipelines — gives states around it lower gas prices than those in the Rocky Mountain region. The same is true of New England states, Alaska and Hawaii. 

Taxes can also impact gasoline prices as well. Pennsylvania, Illinois, California and Washington have the highest gasoline taxes in the U.S., according to the Tax Foundation. This is one factor that makes Illinois gas prices higher, at nearly $3 per gallon on Friday, than its neighbors. 

Then there’s California

Another factor, the EIA notes, is environmental regulations, which is why California’s gasoline prices are so high despite access to ports. The state requires a special blend of gasoline called "California Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending", also known as CARBOB. 

The only refineries that make this special blend are in California, and two of those are shutting down in the next six months, which is expected to send gas prices in the deep blue state soaring. This will also impact Nevada and Arizona, which import some of their gasoline from California. 

A report released last October explains that California contributes a large share of its GDP to the U.S. total, and its military bases are important for the defense of the nation. 

“As a result of California government policies and regulatory actions, as well as years of politicians demonizing refiners and producers as ‘price gougers’ without economic proof, California is now facing a pending gasoline and aviation fuels crisis of potentially epic levels,” the report warns. 

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat and likely presidential candidate in 2026, has a history of hostility towards the oil and gas industry. Recognizing what the refinery closures would mean to consumers, however, he sought a buyer for Valero Energy's Benicia refinery near San Francisco, Reuters reported in July, in hopes of keeping the refinery operating. 

Pipeline developers are also hoping the state’s desperation for gas supplies will be enough to overcome environmentalist opposition to oil and gas infrastructure. Phillips 66 and Kinder Morgan are proposing a pipeline that will connect refineries in the interior of the U.S. to the West Coast. Phillips 66 Chief Executive Officer Mark Lashier told Bloomberg News Tuesday that the project has broad support. 

Overview of the global market 

Analysts looking at the global market predict the low gas-price environment will continue into next year. 

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a statement that Christmas is when gas prices typically settle at their lowest level. 

“Refinery maintenance has wrapped up, supplies are rising, and winter demand is much lower than in summer — all of which help keep a lid on prices. Provided there are no surprises, holiday travelers should see pump prices that come in a bit lower than last Christmas,” De Haan said. 

De Haan explains on his “Fuel Insights” Substack that global oil markets have been facing pressure in recent weeks over macroeconomic and supply-side developments. Expectations of slowing demand, especially in China and parts of Europe, are coming up against producers in non-OPEC countries increasing the supply. 

This is expected to outpace supply into the early part of next year. On top of that, according to De Haan, OPEC+ countries don't show signs they’re likely to cut production. 

Improved oil industry operations in U.S.

Blackmon said that the efficiencies in drilling and well completion that have developed in the U.S. oil and gas industry will also help keep prices low going forward. The U.S. domestic rig count is down 15% year-over-year.

“Yet, even while drilling fewer wells, America's companies are able to continue to increase overall production thanks to advances in technology and smarter management of their field operations and drilling operations,” Blackmon said. 

Kevin Killough is the energy reporter for Just The News. You can follow him on X for more coverage.