Paxton shows narrow lead over Talarico in Texas U.S. Senate Race, according to new poll

Though typically Republican-leaning, Texas has witnessed a litany of polls showing Democratic nominee James Talarico ahead of Paxton in the contest.

Published: September 30, 2026 10:31am

A new poll of likely voters shows Republican Ken Paxton leading Democrat James Talarico 48% to 45% in the Texas U.S. Senate race.

The Pulse Decision Science survey, conducted Sept. 24-27, was identified as a Republican internal poll.

Paxton, who President Donald Trump has endorsed, managed to oust Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, in the primary. Though typically Republican-leaning, Texas has witnessed a litany of polls showing Democratic nominee James Talarico ahead of Paxton in the contest, prompting the president to get involved on behalf of his chosen candidate.

"He is unbelievable. He is a loyal, hardworking character. Ken's one of the best state attorney generals in the entire country. He has been for the last many years and frankly he's gonna go down as one of the best ever," Trump said in a video.

"Ken Paxton has my Complete and Total Endorsement to be the next U.S. Senator from Texas," he added.

Talarico currently holds an average 2.9% lead, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average.

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