Dem frontrunners for 2028 in flux as party grapples with 'socialist' surge

The Democratic Party’s 2028 primary is shaping up to be a lead-change race, with conventional and outsider candidates moving in and out of the top slot amid an ongoing internal divide within the party over the surge of democratic socialists in down-ballot races.

A string of primary wins for democratic socialist candidates in New York City saw the progressive left remove two senior House Democrats, including the chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, Rep. Adriano Espaillat, D-N.Y., and Rep. Dan Goldman, D-N.Y. Subsequent primary races in Colorado saw far-left candidates easily secure the party nominations for myriad House races.

Fetterman scolds Dems: "Don’t be weirdo socialists and don’t praise Mao and do crazy shit” 

The progressive wave seems to have some Democrats worried about the party’s future. Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., for instance, has been sharply critical of the rise of so-called "democratic socialist" candidates in the Democratic primary process. When pressed on what he believed the party should do for the 2026 midterms, he told the Gateway Pundit that “my strategy should be not be weird. Don’t be communists. Don’t be weirdo socialists and don’t praise Mao and do crazy shit.”

Fetterman and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani have emerged as foils within the party, with the topic of Israel representing one of their sharpest divides. Mamdani, whose meteoric rise has led to subsequent victories for the far-left with his backing, has openly floated arresting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Fetterman, meanwhile, condemned such a prospective move and made clear that he believes the party should remain pro-Israel.

The growing tension between the opposite ends of the party, however, appears headed toward a tipping point that currently seems likely to favor the left-wing of the party. Recent polling has shown Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., as a potential frontrunner, with her taking an outright lead in the pivotal primary state of New Hampshire in a Granite State poll published by The Hill.

AOC’s rise predated the current wave of socialist candidates, and she was a founding member of the far-left “squad” that entered Congress in 2019. Her surge in New Hampshire saw her gain 8% support from October 2025, to 22% in July of this year. That surge also saw her move past former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who went from 19% support to 21% support in the same period.

Notably, no major prospective candidate has announced an official bid for the party nomination and much of the polling remains speculative.

Two of the other major prospective candidates, notably Gov. Gavin Newsom, D-Calif., and former Vice President Kamala Harris, have also enjoyed brief periods atop the party's totem pole. In mid-July, for instance, a Harvard-Harris poll had Harris on top at the national level with 37% support to Newsom’s 24%, Buttigieg’s 10%, and ACO’s 9%.

In mid-May, it was AOC on top in an Atlas Intel survey, with Buttigieg and Newsom vying for second, and Harris in fourth. Some current surveys show Buttigieg in the number one slot, with Newsom in second, AOC in third, and Harris trailing behind other hypothetical candidates.

The see-sawing and jockeying for position of the myriad candidates, each of whom seems to represent one extreme faction or another of the Democratic coalition, suggests the overall battle for party direction is far from over.

Proxies for the socialists

Meanwhile, down-ballot races continue to offer more immediate proxies for the socialists and moderates to battle it out. The Maine Senate race, for example, recently pitted the establishment-backed Gov. Janet Mills, D-Maine, against the progressive Graham Platner, who won decisively after full-throated endorsements from Senator Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. and Vermont Sen. I-Vt. Bernie Sanders.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-VT, and many progressive stalwarts had backed Platner, whose clear win led moderates to question Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s pro-Mills approach. But Platner then dropped out in the face of scandal, leading to former state Senate President Troy Jackson taking over as the presumptive nominee.

The subsequent race to replace Platner saw Schumer declare “I’m staying out of Maine,” with a strategist telling Politico at the time that a Schumer-backed candidate would not be well-received. Mainers ultimately opted for a comparably progressive candidate in Jackson, seemingly repeating their rebuke of the establishment’s involvement in the contest.

The first primary contest will not take place until early 2028, however, meaning both the establishment and the socialist wing of the Democratic Party will have plenty of time to vie for dominance, and establish convenient narratives to suit their aims.

Ben Whedon is the Chief Political Correspondent for Just the News. Follow him on X.