Michigan primaries set to determine pivotal races for House, Senate battles

Michigan is set to hold House and Senate primaries Tuesday whose outcome could likely shape the larger battles for the November contests and tip the scales in the larger battle for both chambers, depending on their outcomes.

The top-line race is the Democratic Senate primary, which has seen Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., square off against progressive Abdul El-Sayed. The winner is likely to face former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers who narrowly lost his 2024 Senate bid to now-Republican Sen. Elissa Slotkin.

Polling data has suggested that the dynamic of the general Senate contest could be dramatically different depending on the candidate Democrats put forward. The primary is set to be a showdown between the establishment and progressive wings of the Democratic Party, represented by Stevens and El-Sayed, respectively.

At the national level, party leaders have struggled to contain the growth of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) and the success of their candidates in mounting primary challenges to conventional lawmakers.

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, perhaps the highest-ranking DSA figure in the nation, recently managed to install three of his preferred candidates as Democratic House nominees in the New York primaries. In the process, he managed to oust Democratic Reps. Dan Goldman and Rep. Adriano Espaillat, the leader of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.

The Colorado primaries also saw DSA candidates pull off upsets against incumbents and establishment lawmakers, bringing the battle for the soul of the party into the American heartland.

But while the DSA seems to have the establishment Democrats on the back foot, that dynamic could change dramatically if their victories in the summer primaries translate to defeats in the November midterms.

The Michigan race is poised to be two different contests, depending on the winner of the Democratic primary. A recent Glengarif Group survey found that Stevens would narrowly lead Rogers with 45.5% support to his 44.7%. But if El-Sayed is the nominee, Rogers would lead with 49.0% to his 38.7%.

El-Sayed, as he repeatedly said, is not a member of the DSA and has explicitly rejected claims that he supports socialism. He has, however, still attracted endorsements from the same progressive heavyweights backing DSA-aligned candidates.

The poll could be an outlier, however. The RealClearPolitics polling averages, which do not include the Glengarif Group survey, currently show either Democrat with a 0.5% average lead over Rogers.

Polling is far more consistent, however, in the party primary and El-Sayed currently averages a whopping 10.2% lead over Stevens.

The Senate race isn’t the only Michigan contest that could shape the larger midterm dynamics.

Democratic Rep. Shri Thanedar is fighting for his political survival against a more progressive challenger.

Thanedar achieved national attention last year when he brought articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump. In October of that year, he renounced his membership in the Democratic Socialists of America after the group organized a pro-Palestine rally.

Thanedar represents the state's 13th Congressional District, which includes large sections of Detroit. He faces state Rep. Donavan McKinney in the Democratic primary. 

McKinney has the backing of the local DSA, Justice Democrats, numerous progressive organizations and heavyweight liberals such as Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont Independent.

Though Thanedar, an AIPAC-backed businessman, is facing a DSA candidate, Democratic leaders are less concerned with this particular race, Axios reported. Some have viewed the contest more as a matter of black representation in Detroit. Thanedar, who is Indian, previously won his seat in part due to a divided black electorate. This time, though, he faces McKinney, who is also black, and no other black candidate to divide that voting bloc.

But whether the race is, in fact, merely determined by identity politics or not, the intra-party policy dynamics remain at play in light of the disparate camps still lining up behind their respective standard bearer.

While the winner in the district is all but certain to win the November contest, such is not the case in the state's 7th Congressional District, where a litany of candidates are vying for the opportunity to take on a vulnerable incumbent. The district is currently represented by Rep. Tom Barrett, R-Mich., and is centered on Lansing. It is considered a toss up.

In the narrowly divided House, even one contest could determine control of the lower chamber. Barrett’s vulnerable status has local Democrats jumping at the chance to enter Congress and has produced a three-way primary between Bridget Brink, William Lawrence and Matt Maasdam.

Brink previously served as ambassador to Slovakia and Ukraine. 

Lawrence is a progressive activist who has the backing of many socialist heavyweights, including Sanders,and progressive "Squad" member Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich. 

He does not list the DSA among his endorsements but does have the backing of many other progressive organizations. Maasdam is a retired Navy SEAL and has positioned himself as an outsider, non-politician candidate.

Collectively, the three candidates seem to represent distinct subsets of the Democratic voting bloc. At present, most polls show Brink with at least a narrow lead, though some have shown Lawrence ahead. Either result is likely to keep the race in toss up territory, but a potentially narrow victory for either, could disillusion parts of the losing candidate’s constituency and create an opening for Barrett to keep his seat.

Ben Whedon is the Chief Political Correspondent at Just the News. Follow him on X.