NATO long warned of Russian, Chinese threats to Greenland, now rejects Trump’s ownership solution

NATO has long warned about Russian and Chinese threats across the Arctic and specifically related to Greenland, but is now rejecting President Donald Trump’s solution to the problem — U.S. ownership of the strategically-located frozen island — as NATO members claim Trump’s actions could end the alliance.

Trump is pushing for the U.S. to acquire Greenland from Denmark in an effort to defend against the Chinese and Russian threats in the Arctic, but Denmark and a number of NATO member states are pushing back strongly, suggesting that Trump is the real threat to the region and the alliance.

A review of dozens of NATO statements, reports, and analyses indicates that the alliance’s increased focus on threats to the Arctic — and on Russian and Chinese ambitions in the High North — began in a more serious way roughly a decade ago after Putin’s seizure of Crimea, with the NATO warnings escalating following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The president declared on Truth Social on Wednesday that “the United States needs Greenland for the purpose of National Security” and that “it is vital for the Golden Dome that we are building.”

Denmark: "It would be the end of NATO"

“NATO should be leading the way for us to get it. IF WE DON’T, RUSSIA OR CHINA WILL, AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!” Trump said. “Militarily … NATO would not be an effective force or deterrent — Not even close! They know that, and so do I. NATO becomes far more formidable and effective with Greenland in the hands of the UNITED STATES. Anything less than that is unacceptable.”

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said earlier this month that it would be the end of NATO if Trump seizes Greenland by force.

“If the United States were to choose to attack another NATO country, then everything would come to an end,” Frederiksen said. “The international community as we know it, democratic rules of the game, NATO, the world’s strongest defensive alliance — all of that would collapse if one NATO country chose to attack another.”

Kerry Buck, a former Canadian ambassador to NATO, said that such a move by Trump "would mean the end of NATO” and “it would be the death of NATO."

Fred Fleitz, a former chief of staff to the National Security Council, told Just the News on Thursday that “NATO is not going to break up” over the dispute about Greenland, and said of Trump’s desire to acquire the frozen island that “this is something that's going to happen.”

“I don't think President Trump plans to invade Greenland, but I don't know, but I do think that the Danish fear that he could take some kind of action to seize it,” Fleitz said.

“The Danish government has been interfering with efforts by U.S. officials to talk to the people … The Danes interfere because they don't want us talking to the Greenland people. They realize that Donald Trump could make them a very attractive offer. What if Trump offered half a million dollars to every Greenlandic citizen?” Fleitz said. “There's about 57,000 of them. The U.S. could afford that they could have citizenship, or ability to move the United States, maybe serve in the U.S. military. We can offer them a much better future than Denmark can. Denmark knows that, and they don't want us to talk about that to the people of Greenland.”

Just the News reported earlier this week that while Denmark’s leaders now downplay the threat to Greenland posed by Russia and China amidst Trump’s outspoken desire to acquire the island, Denmark's Danish Defense Intelligence Service released an assessment just last month bluntly warning of Russian and Chinese military ambitions toward and expansion around Greenland and the Arctic.

Trump said Sunday on Air Force One that Greenland should make a deal with the U.S. as he criticized Denmark’s ability to protect the autonomous frozen island.

“Greenland should make the deal because Greenland does not want to see Russia or China take over,” Trump said. “Basically, their defense is two dog sleds. You know that? You know what their defense is? Two dog sleds.”

Speaking of Chinese and Russian ambitions toward Greenland, the president added that “we’re not going to let that happen.”

Danes and NATO look to increase military presence in Greenland 

Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen announced this week that “the Danish Defense Forces, together with several Arctic and European allies, will explore in the coming weeks how an increased presence and exercise activity in the Arctic can be implemented."

The Danish Ministry of Defense said Wednesday that “geopolitical tensions have spread to the Arctic” and that “the Government of Greenland, and the Danish Ministry of Defence have therefore decided to continue the Danish Armed Forces’ increased exercise activity in Greenland, in close cooperation with NATO allies.” The Danish military added that “there will be an expanded military presence in and around Greenland — in close cooperation with NATO allies.”

Peter Boysen, the chief of the Danish army, reportedly told The Atlantic this week that “in order to maintain sovereignty, you need boots on the ground.” The outlet said that Boysen “leaned forward over a small table…so that I could not mistake his meaning” and said that “we need, of course, to have units that are able to deploy to Greenland in times of crisis to show presence.”

The outlet's reporter added that “Danish lawmakers I spoke with suspected that the timing was not a coincidence. They said the government in Copenhagen wants to avoid inflaming tensions with the United States, but also knows it can’t sit on its hands.”

“If we want to have a credible deterrent, we have to send something,” an anonymous member of the Danish parliament’s defense committee reportedly told the outlet, and The Atlantic's reporter added that “a U.S. official in Copenhagen told me that the deployment is consistent with Denmark’s promises to boost Arctic deterrence, but was likely expedited because of tensions with the United States.”

France, Germany, Sweden, and Norway are also participating in the Danish military exercise near Greenland, according to Fox News. Germany sent a team of 13 personnel, France sent 15 specialists, Sweden sent three officers, Norway deployed two officers, and Britain sent one officer, according to Reuters.

Trump had said Wednesday that "certainly I'm not going to give up options, but Greenland is very important for the national security including of Denmark.” He argued that "the problem is there's not a thing that Denmark can do about it if Russia or China wants to occupy Greenland but there's everything we can do — we found that out last week with Venezuela."

The president added that "I can't rely on Denmark being able to fend themselves off.”

Trump also said last week that “if we don’t do it the easy way, we’re going to do it the hard way.”

“I met with the Danish ambassador to the U.S. this week, and the Greenland rep to the U.S., and I just think that they're clueless. Tiny Denmark is incapable of developing or defending this giant island — which is in North America, and Denmark is in Europe — or supporting the people of Greenland,” Fleitz told Just the News on Thursday. “And Trump simply recognized something that is obvious, given the threat from China and Russia. This is also a crucial territory for our defense. We'd like to start building Golden Dome facilities there.”

NATO leadership sought to frame Greenland debate in Trump’s second term

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte spoke about Greenland in February 2025, claiming that “I think is very useful is that President Trump alerted us to the fact that when it comes to the High North, there is a geopolitical and strategic issue at stake. I would say that is not only about Greenland. This has to do with Finland. It has to do with Sweden, Norway, Iceland, yes, Greenland — and therefore Denmark — also Canada, and also the U.S.”

Rutte said in April 2025 that “I think we should zoom out from Greenland, and we should look at the High North and the Arctic in general.” He said that “there is an issue in the Arctic with Chinese using the new sea lanes coming up” and with “Russia rearming and arming parts of the Arctic.” He said that NATO was working “to make sure that we take the necessary next steps to defend this part of NATO territory.”

The NATO chief said in May 2025 that “what you see now is that these seven countries, including the U.S. and Canada, and, of course, Iceland and Norway and Finland and Sweden and Denmark, so Greenland, they're all working more and more collectively together.”

“What President Trump has said about the Arctic, also, in general, the issue of Russia and China becoming more and more involved there, building up their defence systems, the fact that the sea lanes are opening up now,” Rutte added.

The NATO Alliance Maritime Strategy in October 2025 contained no direct mention of Greenland, but it pointed to Arctic threats posed by the Russians and the Chinese. The strategy said that Russia was engaging in a “military build-up” in multiple regions, including the Arctic, which “challenges our security and interests.” The NATO strategy also said China was “pursuing a military build-up” as well, including “increasing its use of dual-use military-scientific vessels and surging its presence in the High North and the Arctic.”

“I was in Copenhagen last week having my bilateral, very pleasant, successful visit with Mette Frederiksen and her team, the Prime Minister of Denmark,” Rutte also said that month, pointing to challenges by Russia and China in the Arctic and arguing that “I think President Trump was absolutely right when he said, we need to work on the icebreaker capacity.”

Rutte said in January of this year that, in Trump’s first term, the president “was making us aware collectively of the need to protect the High North and the Arctic” and that Trump “basically alerted us to the fact that sea lanes are opening up, that Russia and China are more active, and that you have to do more there together.”

The NATO chief said that Denmark is “investing in more F-35's and they're investing in air-to-air refueling and all these capabilities you need, not only to keep Denmark safe, to keep NATO as a whole safe, but also to make sure that when it comes to the Arctic region and — for them, of course, a special priority when it comes to Greenland — to stay as safe as possible.”

“What I am doing, and with the U.S. and Canada and all our Allies in Europe, is to make sure that we not only concentrate about Greenland, this is an issue about the High North, this is an issue about the Arctic territory,” Rutte said. “Let’s not be naïve, even if there are not that many ships sailing at the moment, we know that with the sea lanes opening up in the High North and the Arctic - and this is not only true for Greenland, this is true for the whole Arctic area — it's not only Russia active there, it is increasingly also China being active there.”

The NATO chief also spoke at length about the Arctic at another event this month, where he spoke about Russia and China in the High North and again argued that “as we speak, we see Denmark, at the moment, already speeding up their investments when it comes to defense, not only generally, but also when it comes to unique capabilities to defend territories like Greenland.”

NATO warnings about Russia and China in the Arctic date back a decade

The NATO Parliamentary Assembly’s 2017 report on “NATO and Security in the Arctic” assessed that “the re-emergence of the Arctic on the international agenda and possible spill-over of tension between Russia and NATO Allies, as well as China’s increasing engagement, could make the Arctic an arena for strategic rivalry.”

The report said that “Russian disregard for the territorial integrity of peaceful neighbours cannot be ignored in the High North” and also pointed to China’s growing focus on the Arctic, noting that “the PRC has taken steps over the past several years to protect its interests in the High North, pursuing a presence in Svalbard, Iceland, and Greenland.”

A strategic foresight analysis report by NATO in 2017 also said that “although the likelihood of a conventional offensive military operation in the Arctic is very low, militarization efforts mainly from Russia, should not be ignored.”

NATO’s Allied Command Transformation put out a strategic foresight analysis workshop report in 2018 recounting insights from Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies professor Dr. Katarzyna Zysk.

The report said that “Zysk provided a scene setter for the discussion on the Arctic” and pointed to challenges from both Russia and China, noting that “the Ukrainian crisis and illegal annexation of Crimea is one example where tension between Russia and its Arctic neighbours extended to the normally stable Arctic council” while “China has declared itself as a 'Near-Arctic State' and wants to have a Polar Silk Road.”

The report also put a focus on Greenland, noting that the island “has been discussing independence for a few years” and that “at stake are riches of mineral resources, including rare earth minerals.” The professor laid out “Arctic Scenarios” on “​​Greenland’s future” including that “Greenland ‘goes alone’ by seeking independence,” “Greenland is aggressively courted by China (monetary investments),” or “Russia conducts info ops campaigns to destabilize the relationship with Denmark as a part of campaign to destabilize NATO, and weaken the presence in the Arctic.”

This report said “China’s interest is increasing (shipping, energy, minerals, political, fishing)” and that the country was “making serious commitments.”

The professor raised the “Russia–China strategic alliance” and said possible scenarios included that “Russia establishes a NATO-like relationship with China which also extends to the Arctic, opening up and strengthening Russia–China cooperation (mining, shipping, energy, minerals)” or “a much stronger presence of China in the Arctic with a stronger and more direct influence on regional developments (economic, security environmental, etc.).”

A review by NATO in 2019 on “the changing shape of Arctic security” noted that “the United States (as well as Denmark) has also been anxious about China’s expanding economic interests in Greenland, including in mining and potential infrastructure investment” and that “China has also announced its intention to build a nuclear-powered icebreaker (the country currently has two conventional icebreaking ships capable of Arctic operations) and that technology could in theory be transferred to military vessels.”

The review worried that “attempting to leverage China out of the Arctic may be moot, given that Beijing has already established strong ties with other Arctic states, including Russia” and assessed that “Beijing is now in a position to affect much emerging Arctic policy given its size and economic strength” and that China “is not going to accept being marginalized in the region.”

“Both Russia and the United States are continuing to show signs of hardening their Arctic strategies,” the 2019 NATO review assessed, adding, “The Arctic is now facing a potential ‘revenge of Realpolitik’ with regard to regional security, as the strategic concerns of both major Arctic players, Russia and the United States, along with those of large non-Arctic states such as China, are starting to enter the region with much more regularity.”

NATO's Allied Command Transformation published a “Regional Perspectives Report on the Arctic” in 2021, warning about Russian and Chinese cooperation in the Arctic and their intentions related to Greenland. The report said that “current Russian activities create extra pressure to secure sea lines of communications in the North Atlantic and the GIUK-N Gap” — the waters between Greenland, Iceland, the Faroe Islands, and the United Kingdom.

“In addition to growing economic ties with Russia, China is making long-term investments in mining projects in Greenland,” NATO stated. “It is hard to predict and quantify when and how China will leverage its soft power through direct investments in Arctic infrastructure projects to influence decisions by Arctic states in favour of China. Recent actions in Greenland have already shown the viability of China leveraging its FDI [foreign direct investment] as a soft power tool and as a potential precursor to introduce hard power in the foreseeable future.”

The report also pointed to the Sino-Russian alliance in the High North.

“Russia will continuously try to undermine NATO’s cohesion, in the Arctic and elsewhere, and China will seek opportunities to achieve its Arctic ambitions. … Any social or cultural disruption related to environmental, commercial and technological transformation of the Arctic may provide Russia and China with opportunities for sowing discord among NATO Arctic states and partners,” NATO assessed. “The deterrence calculus for NATO will be critical. If the West pushes Moscow to a level that it becomes increasingly dependent on Beijing, a more permanent Chinese presence in the Arctic will be likely. The challenge for the Alliance will be how to balance Russian ambition while at the same time avoiding closer Sino-Russian military/economic cooperation.”

NATO's warnings about Russia and China in the Arctic ramped up after Ukraine invasion

Then-NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg penned a 2022 piece for The Globe and Mail stating that “NATO is stepping up in the High North to keep our people safe” and warning about the growing DragonBear alliance as he noted that “Beijing and Moscow pledged to intensify practical co-operation in the Arctic, as part of a deepening strategic partnership that challenges our values and interests” launched earlier that year.

“Russia has significantly increased its military activity in recent years, setting up a new Arctic Command, opening hundreds of new and former Soviet-era Arctic military sites, including airfields and deep-water ports, and using the region as a test-bed for novel weapon systems,” the NATO chief warned. “China is also expanding its reach, declaring itself a ‘near-Arctic state’ and planning a ‘Polar Silk Road’ linking China to Europe via the Arctic. It is rapidly strengthening its navy, with plans to build the world’s biggest icebreaker vessel. China is also investing tens of billions of dollars in energy, infrastructure and research projects in the region.”

The NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence penned a report that year on “China's Influence in the Nordic-Baltic Information Environment” which linked China’s Arctic ambitions to Greenland. “Denmark’s economic ties with China are more low profile. The government in Copenhagen has gained legislative authority to screen future investments on national security grounds,” the report said. “It is also concerned about Chinese influence in Greenland, an autonomous territory where foreign and defence policy are a Danish responsibility.”

Admiral Rob Bauer, the chair of NATO’s Military Committee, also gave a speech that year warning about moves by Moscow and Beijing in the Arctic.

“Unfortunately, the world is seeing increased competition and militarization in the region, especially from Russia and China,” Bauer said. “For Russia this has meant making the Arctic and sub Arctic serve militarily and operationally as a strategic bastion for its deterrence and defense. … For China, another authoritarian regime that does not share our values and undermines the rules-based international order, the Arctic interests mean defining itself as a near-Arctic state and building a more prominent presence.”

When asked where in the Arctic the NATO military official believed enhanced allied capabilities should be placed, Bauer replied, “I think it very much depends on what Russia and China are doing. And primarily, first and foremost, Russia, I think that is our first and foremost threat at the moment, and therefore it depends on what the Russians are doing in the Arctic and in what way they are endangering our freedom of maneuver.”

Bauer warned that year that “we have to prepare for the fact that the Russian threat can also come from the High North, and we have to take into account that China's intentions for this region are not transparent — and it has to be seen also in the light of a broader and deepening strategic relationship between China and Russia.”

NATO warned of Sino-Russian cooperation in Arctic and of Beijing eyeing Greenland in 2024

The NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence put out a lengthy 2024 report on “Arctic Narratives and Political Values: Arctic States, China, NATO, and the EU” which attempted to distill NATO, Russian, and Chinese attitudes toward the Arctic — with a heavy focus on Greenland and China’s influence efforts there.

“In the past five years, Denmark’s attention to the question of Arctic security has grown, with Copenhagen now fully alive to the threat posed by China and, particularly, Russia in the Arctic,” the report said. “These considerations are calibrated, however, against Greenlandic priorities — which place local economic considerations over geopolitics. Managing these sometimes different perspectives, while coordinating responsibilities to find shared ground and advance towards shared objectives, is at the heart of the Kingdom of Denmark’s Arctic policy.”

“Greenland has historically welcomed Chinese investment as a crucial element in its developing resource-based economy. Denmark has also been broadly supportive of Chinese involvement in Greenland and was an early supporter of China’s application for accredited observer status on the Arctic Council,” the NATO report said, although NATO said that there “has been a quantifiable decrease in Danish support for China and Chinese activity in the Arctic” in recent years and that “Denmark has clearly identified ownership of Greenlandic infrastructure as a strategic threat.”

But the report said Greenland was not as skeptical of China as Denmark, assessing that “warnings over the strategic infiltration of Chinese influence have comparatively little traction amongst Greenlanders, and Danish warnings have generally fallen on deaf ears — or have provoked a backlash within a Greenlandic political class averse to Copenhagen’s interference.” 

“While Greenland continues to welcome Chinese investment as an economic necessity and political tool to counter perceived overdependence on Denmark, all indications are that it does so in the absence of a Western alternative,” the NATO report said. “One alternative for Greenland is increased investment from the U.S., and its government has courted this in recent years.”

NATO’s “Climate Change and Security Impact Assessment” that year also found that “permafrost thaw jeopardises the integrity” of half of the U.S. military installations in the Arctic, “namely Pituffik Space Base in northwestern Greenland” among others.

Bauer also warned in 2024 that “we are also increasingly witnessing cooperation between Russia and China in this region” and that “this cooperation has a clear military aspect to it.” He said that “China’s Coast Guard vessels entered the Arctic Ocean for the first time, patrolling the waters jointly with Russian ships” that year, and that “Russia´s state nuclear agency Rosatom and a major Chinese shipping company announced a partnership to establish a year-round container shipping line along the Arctic’s Northern Sea Route.”

“Two years ago, the Chinese Ambassador to Iceland accused me of paranoia and arrogance when I predicted at this conference that China would go into the Arctic Ocean. As it turns out, it was in a way unfortunately an accurate prediction,” Bauer said, as he pointed to the “growing and concerning cooperation between Beijing and Moscow.”

Bauer added that “the High North is important for the whole Alliance.”

Denmark and NATO push back on Trump over Greenland

“We need Greenland from a national security situation. It’s so strategic,” Trump said on Air Force One last week. “Right now, Greenland is covered with Russian and Chinese ships all over the place. We need Greenland from the standpoint of national security.”

After a Danish and Greenlandic meeting at the White House this week, Frederiksen said Thursday that “there is a fundamental disagreement because the American ambition to take over Greenland is intact” and so “we continue our efforts to prevent that scenario from becoming a reality.”

The Financial Times also reported over the weekend that “Nordic diplomats rejected US President Donald Trump’s claims of Russian and Chinese vessels operating near Greenland, which he has invoked to justify his desire to seize the vast Arctic island from Denmark” and that “two top Nordic diplomats with access to NATO intelligence briefings said there were no signs of Russian and Chinese ships or submarines in recent years around Greenland.”

“It is simply not true that the Chinese and Russians are there. I have seen the intelligence. There are no ships, no submarines,” one senior diplomat reportedly told the outlet. “This idea that the waters around Greenland are crawling with Russian and Chinese ships or submarines is just not true,” another Nordic diplomat reportedly said. “They are in the Arctic, yes, but on the Russian side.”

Stine Bosse, a Danish member of the European parliament, contended at a NATO event on Tuesday that “there are not [sic] one single Chinese or Russian ship around Greenland — let that be stated as a fact.”

The leaders of Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the United Kingdom earlier this month released a joint statement arguing that “Greenland belongs to its people. It is for Denmark and Greenland, and them only, to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland.”

The five major political parties in Greenland released their own joint statement last Friday stating that “as Greenlandic party leaders, we would like to emphasize once again our desire for the US's disdain for our country to end.”

“We do not want to be Americans, we do not want to be Danes, we want to be Greenlanders,” the parties said.

The foreign ministers of Greenland and Denmark met with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance this week, and Trump’s efforts to acquire Greenland continue.