Hochul favorability goes negative despite 14-point lead over Blakeman in NY governor’s race: poll

(The Center Square) — Democratic New York Gov. Kathy Hochul appears poised for another term with a new poll showing her leading Republican rival Bruce Blakeman by 14 points less than two weeks before the gubernatorial election.

The Quinnipiac poll of 1,167 likely New York voters, conducted between Oct. 15-19, showed Hochul ahead 55%-41% with about 4% still undecided. The results suggest that the race has tightened slightly from a month ago when a similar Quinnipiac poll had Hochul leading by a 19 percentage-point margin. But pollsters said the latest survey shows the incumbent governor in a comfortable position for reelection in the Nov. 3 election.

"As Republican Bruce Blakeman becomes better known, he’s improved his image among independents," Mary Snow, a Quinnipiac University pollster, said in a statement. "But with less than two weeks to go until the final votes are cast, he faces an uphill battle as Hochul maintains a double-digit lead."

Hochul is seeking reelection to a second full term with her running mate, former New York City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams. She took over as governor in 2021 after then-Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo stepped down amid sexual harassment claims, and won a full term in 2022 after defeating Republican Lee Zeldin.

Blakeman, a Nassau County executive who is running with President Trump's endorsement, is making his first run for governor with Madison County Sheriff Todd Hood as his running mate for lieutenant governor.

Republicans are pinning their hopes of winning back the governor's office on Blakeman, focusing on Hochul's pro-immigration policies, crime, and support for New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s leftist agenda.

Democrats are hoping that voter antipathy towards President Trump's policies will help them hold onto the governor's office for another four years and flip several GOP-held congressional districts across the state that will also be on the November ballot.

The Quinnipiac poll shows Hochul’s favorability has slipped compared to the September poll, delving into negative territory with 46% viewing her unfavorably compared to 45% who viewed her favorably.

But Blakeman's favorability rating is also upside down, with 40% of those polled saying they have an "unfavorable" opinion and roughly a quarter of those polled unfamiliar with him as a candidate for governor.

The Republican gubernatorial nominee's rating among voters is also being dragged down by President Trump's low approval rating in the state, pollsters said.

New York's high cost of living was the top issue for those polling, with 22% saying it was their top concern ahead of the election. That was followed by jitters about the state of the economy, with 19% of those surveyed saying it was their second concern. Hochul led Blakeman on both issues, 71%-24% among those who ranked cost of living as the top concern, and 72%-27% for those concerned about the economy.

Immigration was the third-leading issue, with 13% of likely voters saying it’s their top concern, the only other topic to hit double digits. Blakeman polled better than Hochul on immigration, according to the Quinnipiac survey results.

"The issues driving likely voters to choose a candidate produce starkly different outcomes," Snow said. "If it's the cost of living or the economy as the top issue, Hochul has resounding support. If it's immigration, Blakeman leads overwhelmingly."