Poll: Inflation still tops voters' concerns before midterms

Inflation remains the issue American voters rank as most important heading into the midterms, with prices topping their list of concerns for a third consecutive poll, a new national poll finds.

The Center Square Voters' Voice Poll found 20% of registered voters named inflation or price increases as the single most important issue facing the country, and 41% ranked it among their top three, more than any other issue on both measures.

Inflation has topped the list since March, when 16% named it their top concern, rising to 20% in June and holding there in August. As a top-three issue, concern eased slightly from 43% in June.

The economy and jobs ranked second, named the top issue by 12% of voters and placed among the top three by 31%. Government corruption followed at 9%, healthcare and illegal immigration at 7% each. Measured by top-three support, healthcare drew 27%, government corruption 23%, affordable housing 21% and illegal immigration 19%.

Consumer prices rose 3.4% over the 12 months ending in July, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, easing slightly from 3.5% a month earlier. Energy costs climbed 14.7% over the year, led by a 24.6% jump in gasoline prices, while food-at-home prices rose 2.7% and shelter costs increased 3.2%.

Wendy Edelberg, a nonresident senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution and a former chief economist at the Congressional Budget Office, said voter frustration runs deeper than the monthly inflation rate. Prices for attention-grabbing items like gasoline have risen recently, she said, and wages have not kept pace with inflation. Beyond that, she said, voters are simply worn down by how much things cost.

"Eventually, a $12 sandwich will stop being shocking," Edelberg told The Center Square.

She said Americans have complained for years about the cost of necessities such as housing, health care and child care, and that politicians have long promised to bring those costs down. "Perhaps people have run out of patience."

Voter concerns have shifted since the spring. Tariffs and international trade, which 13% of voters called the country's single most important issue in March, fell to 3% by August, the sharpest drop of any issue in the poll. Concern about illegal immigration also eased, from 10% naming it their top issue in March to 7% in August. Affordable housing moved the other way: measured by top-three support, it climbed from 15% in March to 21% in August.

Voters also ranked government corruption among the country's top concerns, second only to economic issues by top-three support. Yet unlike inflation, which the government tracks through monthly price and wage data, federal fraud losses are far less precisely measured.

When the U.S. Government Accountability Office produced its estimate in 2024, a range of $233 billion to $521 billion a year, it called the figure the first of its kind. GAO noted that "no reliable estimates of fraud losses affecting the federal government previously existed." GAO has not issued a new government-wide estimate since.

The Office of Management and Budget has said it is difficult to know the exact figure but that annual fraud losses have been "enormous, certainly numbering in the hundreds of billions," an OMB spokesman previously told The Center Square. GAO has said it has no plans to update the estimate, in part because it recommended the Treasury Department develop an approach for producing one going forward.

The latest Voters' Voice Poll findings track with other national polling. A Pew Research Center survey conducted July 6-12 found that economic issues dominated when voters were asked, without a list to choose from, what they most wanted to hear congressional candidates discuss. Nearly three in 10 named the economy, including 15% who cited the cost of living or affordability, followed by government ethics and reform, immigration and healthcare.

Inflation topped the list across party lines, named the most important issue by 21% of Republicans, 23% of independents and 17% of Democrats. The parties diverged on what came next. Republicans were more likely to cite illegal immigration and national security, while Democrats more often named government corruption and healthcare.

The White House pointed to President Donald Trump's 2024 election as the definitive measure of public opinion.

"The ultimate poll was November 5th 2024 when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda," White House spokesman Davis Ingle told The Center Square.

He said no president in history had accomplished more for the American people, citing work to "create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more." He also said the administration's agenda "continues taking effect."

The Center Square Voters' Voice Poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from Aug. 12-16, surveying 2,533 registered U.S. voters. The sample included 930 Republicans, 930 Democrats, and 673 Independents. Among independent voters, 330 respondents were classified as True Independents, or individuals who do not lean toward either major party when given the choice.

The poll's margin of error is +/- 2.0%.