Poll: Trump leads Biden by 12% in North Carolina

Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden by 12% in North Carolina among choices expected to be available Nov. 5. The latest poll produced results far different from any other in North Carolina to date.

Trump is favored by 44% of 600 likely voters in the poll conducted May 29-June 2, sandwiching both before and after he became a convicted felon Thursday in New York. North Star Opinion Research, sampling for AmericanGreatness.com and delivering a +/- 4% margin of error, said Biden was chosen by 32%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 9%, Cornel West 3% and Jill Stein 2%. There were 8% undecided.

At Monday’s deadline, voter signature lists were filed by three groups with the state Board of Elections. Two represented Kennedy and West, and a third was by the Constitution Party. The filings, if signatures are verified, would allow the parties to slate candidates for any election race this fall, not just president.

While pitched as a toss-up state, Biden winning the 16 electoral college votes would be an epic upset. North Carolinians have chosen every Republican presidential candidate starting with Richard Nixon in 1968, with the exception of Jimmy Carter (1976, not 1980 versus Ronald Reagan) and Barack Obama (2008, not 2012 versus Mitt Romney). Trump beat Biden 49.9%-48.6% in North Carolina with more than 5.5 million votes cast in 2020, and he turned back Hillary Clinton 49.8%-46.2% with more than 4.7 million votes cast in 2016.

The last Republican as much as 9% better than his opponent was incumbent George W. Bush in 2004, who topped John Kerry 56%-43.6% with North Carolinian John Edwards – long before the December 2007 revelation of an extramarital affair – on his ticket.

Unaffiliated voters control statewide elections. Through Saturday, the more than 7.4 million voter registrations are 37% unaffiliated, 32.1% Democrats and 30% Republicans.

Of recent polls:

• Carolina Forward (May 13-18; by Change Research; 835 likely voters) found Trump (41%) ahead of Biden (38%) and Kennedy (11%).

• The super PAC Citizens to Save Our Republic (May 9-16; by Prime Group; 472 registered voters) reported Trump (45%) ahead of Biden (42%), Kennedy (11%), West (2%) and Stein (1%).

• Cook Political Report (May 6-13; by BSG/GS Strategy Group; 601 likely voters) reported Trump (44%) ahead of Biden (36%) and Kennedy (8%).

• Bloomberg (May 8-12; by Morning Consult; 704 likely voters) reported Trump (46%) ahead of Biden (38%), Kennedy (7%), West (1%) and Stein (1%).

• High Point University (May 2-9; by HPU Survey Research Center; 804 registered voters) found Trump (44%) ahead of Biden (42%) and someone else/another party (7%).

• Carolina Journal (May 4-5; by Cygnal; 600 likely voters) reported Trump (43%) ahead of Biden (38%) and Kennedy (9%).

• The Telegraph (May 2-4; by Redfield & Wilton Strategies; 553 likely voters) scored Trump (44%) ahead of Biden (37%), Kennedy (7%) and Stein (0%).

American Greatness was created in 2016, billing itself as “the leading voice of the next generation of American Conservatism.” North Star Opinion Research dates to 1986 and says it “provides message development advice and strategic insights to high level political clients including U.S. Senators Marco Rubio, Lamar Alexander, Lindsey Graham, Jim Inhofe, and John Kennedy, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, current and former Tennessee Governors Bill Lee and Bill Haslam, and former Senator Bob Corker.”