Early voting begins in NJ governor race with Trump-backed candidate hoping to flip blue seat for GOP

Early in-person voting began Tuesday in the New Jersey primaries to decide the state's next governor, with Republicans hoping to flip a blue-state governorship after coming up short in 2024.

President Trump, who is backing front-running GOP candidate Jack Ciattarelli, thinks so. 

“New Jersey is ready to pop out of that blue horror show and really get in there and vote for somebody that’s going to make things happen,” Trump, who last month endorsed Ciattarelli, said Monday.

The same day, Trump held a telephone rally for the former state lawmaker during which he said voters will decide whether New Jersey remains a “high-tax, high-crime sanctuary state.”

The winners of the state's respective Democratic and Republican primaries on June 10 will face off in November to replace Democrat Gov. Phil Murphy, who must leave his post because of term limits.

The primaries feature 11 candidates – six Democrats and five Republicans. Early voting closes Sunday.

The most recent poll by Rutgers’ Eagleton Institute shows Rep. Rebecca "Mikie" Sherrill leading the Democratic field with 17% of the likely vote, followed by Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop at 12%. Newark Mayor Ras Baraka is also at the top of the Democratic primary field.

The poll shows Ciattarelli at 42%, with his closest challenger, former radio host Bill Spadea, at 12%. Ciattarelli is running on the MAGA-inspired platform of "Make New Jersey Affordable Again."

Sherrill, a Naval Academy and Georgetown Law graduate, is running on the platform of making life easier and more affordable for New Jersey families, according to her campaign website.    

In the 2024 elections, 11 governor seats – eight Democratic and three Republican – were up for reelection. However, no seats changed partisan control. Right now, the GOP controls 27 governorships, compared to 23 for Democrats.

The closest Republicans have come to flipping a Deep Blue state is arguably in 2022 in New York when GOP challenger Lee Zeldin narrowly lost to incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul, 47% to 53%.  

"These elections may provide some signals about the political environment," said Kyle Kondik with the University of Virginia Center for Politics. "New Jersey will be another datapoint as we assess the environment. Anything less than sweeping the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races would be a disappointment for Democrats, given the Democratic lean of both states and the fact that Donald Trump is in the White House."

Politicians and political analysts from across the ideological spectrum largely agree the Democratic Party has struggled since losing the 2024 presidential election to find a message – beyond opposing Trump – that will appeal to voters.

“We have no coherent message,” Texas Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett recently told The New York Times. "This guy [Trump] is psychotic. ... There needs to be a message that is clear on at least the underlying thing that comes with all of this.”

Still, the highly regarded Cook Political Report is giving the edge to Democrats in New Jersey this fall.

"Given New Jersey’s historical edge for Democrats and tendency to punish the party in the White House, this race remains in the Lean Democrat column," writes the publication's Matthew Klein. "But recent GOP inroads in the state give the party an unusual degree of confidence about their ability to put the contest in play come November."