GOP sees overwhelming support for transgenders in sports ballot issues as key to midterm success

Ballot initiatives across multiple states protecting women's sports could prove to be a turnout driver for Republicans in November, as polling shows the issue is overwhelmingly favorable across all political stripes. 

"In the off-year elections, turnout is so critical, and our polling shows that were in the 90s (%) amongst Republicans, within the high 80s (%) being strongly in favor. So if you're looking for an issue that our base voters are going to say, 'I've got to get to the polls for this,' this is the issue," Tom Mooney, who is a general consultant to campaigns for such ballot initiatives, told Just The News.

"We think the majority of voters, overall, even amongst Democrats, favor this common sense, getting it back to where it always has been, that girls' sports means that should be for females."

Mooney's sentiment appears well-founded in polling on the issue. Myriad surveys show that voters across all parties support keeping transgender-identifying biological men out of girls' and women's sports. 

Polling aligns with Republicans 

A recent New York Times/Ipsos poll found overwhelming support across all political parties for keeping men out of women’s sports, with 79% of Americans overall in favor – including 94% of Republicans, 67% of Democrats, and 64% of independents. 

Additionally, a Parents Defending Education poll of American parents demonstrated overwhelming support across all political parties for keeping men out of girls’ sports, with 78% of parents opposing biological males on girls’ teams – including 86% of Republican parents, 80% of independents, and 60% of Democratic parents. 

The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll by Noble Predictive Insights also confirmed overwhelming support across all political parties for keeping men out of women’s sports, with 68% of registered voters backing state bans – including 88% of Republicans and 49% of Democrats.

Yet Democrats won't support

Mooney also advised on the fact that in spite of surveys overwhelmingly showing support for protecting women's sports, elected Democrats typically vote against measures to protect women's sports.

"In the Arizona example, every Democrat who had a chance to vote for it passed and voted against it. Our polling in Arizona says that amongst Democrats, it's 57% favoring protecting girls and 17% against."

Trump made it a priority 

President Donald Trump has made it a hallmark issue of his presidency as well, laying the groundwork for states and organizations to rule on the matter in support of female sports purity.

One of the first actions of his second term was signing the executive order "Keeping Men Out of Women's Sports" on Feb. 5.

The order directed federal agencies, particularly the Department of Education, to enforce Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972 in accordance with biological sex– defined as an individual's immutable classification as male or female at birth – thereby withholding federal funding from schools and athletic programs that allow biological males to compete in women's and girls' categories or access female locker rooms.

The policy aimed to preserve equal athletic opportunities for female athletes, prevent unfair physical advantages and safeguard their dignity and safety, prompting swift changes such as the NCAA's updated rules restricting women's competition to those who were female at birth. 

Supporters viewed it as fulfilling a key campaign promise to end policies they saw as undermining women's sports, while the administration emphasized restoring the original intent of Title IX to guarantee fair play based on biological reality rather than gender identity.

Other states taking up the issue

Mooney also told "Just The News" that while his concentration presently is on Maine, his campaign has initiatives in other states as well. 

"In Maine, we're on the ballot. It's already been certified. In Colorado, we're on the ballot and certified. In Arizona, it's a referral through the legislature – we're through the House, Senate Education Committee, and waiting final action in the Senate. And in Nevada, with the help of governor Joe Lombardo, we're gathering signatures to get on the ballot in Nevada." 

Gender at birth is gender in sports

Mooney also reiterated that the ballot measures leave no room for equivocation or leniency. 

"The language sets a standard that we're going to have sports designated male, female or coed. So everyone gets to participate, but they have to participate in how they were born." 

Addressing concerns that, in some states, parents can change their child's gender on their birth certificate, Mooney said, "Our language specifically says that it is the birth certificate issued at birth and unmodified. So having this guarantee, that's the birth certificate you have to use, that's the one that's got to count."   

California, Maine and Washington allow parents to change their child's gender marker on a birth certificate to "X" (non-binary) or another gender. 

In New York City, parents can request a gender marker change to "X" for their child at any time during the first 18 years of life, though the child cannot be assigned X at birth. Additionally, Vermont allows parents to choose a non-binary gender for their newborn's birth certificate, making it one of the few states with such an option.