Cornyn polls 16 points behind Paxton in Texas GOP primary

Senate Leadership Fund's poll shows that Sen. John Cornyn was at 40% to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's 56%

Published: May 13, 2025 7:52am

Sen. John Cornyn is polling 16 points behind Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Texas GOP primary for U.S. Senate, according to the Senate Leadership Fund super PAC.

SLF's poll shows that Cornyn is at 40% to Paxton's 56%, according to two people briefed on the survey, Punchbowl News reported. If the primary turns into a three-person race with Rep. Wesley Hunt, who is considering running, then Paxton would get 44% to Cornyn’s 34%, and Hunt's 19%.

In the general election against former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, who might run, Cornyn leads Allred by six points, compared to Hunt's four points and Paxton trailing by one point.

Cornyn is up for reelection next year and has been in office since first being elected in 2002. His campaign says that he will win the primary election next year.

“Senator Cornyn has a 99% voting record with Trump as president and continues to be his close legislative ally,” Cornyn’s senior adviser Matt Mackowiak said. “In ten months when Texas GOP primary voters completely understand the record of both candidates, we are confident we will win.”

SLF Communications Director Chris Gustafson said Cornyn is in a better position than Paxton.

"The numbers don’t lie – John Cornyn is in a far better early position than Ken Paxton," Gustafson said. "Texans only need one quick look at Paxton’s record before his support plummets, and it’s clear he would risk delivering the Senate majority to Chuck Schumer."

The poll was conducted from April 27 to May 1 by The Tarrance Group.

The survey had President Trump's job approval rating just two points above water in the state, suggesting a more moderate sample of respondents. Trump won Texas by 14 points last year.

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