Democratic Rep Sherrill leads GOP nominee Ciattarelli by 8 points in New Jersey governor race: poll

Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill is leading Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli by eight points in New Jersey’s 2026 gubernatorial race, according to a poll released Tuesday.

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll found Sherrill ahead with 45% support, compared to Ciattarelli's 37%, with 16% of likely voters undecided. 

A total of 87% of Democrats say they will vote for Sherrill, while 86% of Republicans said the same for Ciattarelli. However, 72% of Democrats say they will "definitely vote for Sherrill," compared to 63% of Republicans who answered the same for Ciattarelli.

Sherrill leads Ciattarelli by 7 points among independents, 30% to 23%.

“Unless something goes horribly awry, partisans are going to vote for their party’s candidate,” FDU Poll Executive Director Dan Cassino said in a statement. “While Republicans have been narrowing the gap, there are still more Democrats than Republicans in the state, and Ciattarelli needs to start pulling in more independents and Democrats if he wants to win.”

When asked about a series of local issues, independents' support for Ciattarelli increased by 7 points. However, when asked about a series of national issues, their support decreased by 4 points.

“Ciattarelli is walking a fine line with Trump: he needs to consolidate Trump supporters, but do so without making the race too national, or turning off voters who don’t like what’s happening in Washington,” Cassino said. “For Sherrill, on the other hand, there’s no downside to bashing Trump as much as she likes.”

The poll was conducted July 17-23 among 806 registered voters with a sampling error of +/- 3.4 points.