Paxton's lead over Cornyn in Texas GOP Senate primary shrinks: poll

Texas GOP Attorney General Ken Paxton's lead over incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn had decreased by four points over roughly the past three months, according to a poll released Wednesday.

Paxton is leading Cornyn 44% to 39% among likely primary voters in the 2026 midterm race – with 17% saying they are undecided, according to a survey from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center.

The center's poll in May showed Paxton with a 9-point lead over Cornyn. 

Paxton's 5-point lead over Cornyn holds in a hypothetical three-way primary race with Rep. Wesley Hunt, who has been considering a run. The Texas attorney general is at 35%, compared to the incumbent senator at 30%, and Hunt at 22%, with another 13% unsure.

Allies of the senator have significantly helped him with support, as the Senate GOP leadership-affiliated One Nation has spent more than $4 million in advertising, and Texans for a Conservative Majority spent $3.2 million, The Hill news outlet reported. The Conservative Majority Project has spent about $500,000. 

The latest poll from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center was conducted from Aug. 6-12 among 1,500 likely Texas GOP primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.53%.