New Emerson poll shows Sherrill, Ciattarelli in dead heat in NJ governor race – election 5 days away

Democratic nominee Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli are polling evenly in the New Jersey gubernatorial race ahead of Election Day on Tuesday.

According to an Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey released on Thursday, 49% of likely voters support Sherrill, compared to Ciattarelli’s 48%, with 2% undecided. With the margin of error at +/- 3 percentage points, the two candidates are essentially tied in the race.

When undecided voters were asked which candidate they are leaning toward, Sherrill received 50% support, while Ciattarelli remained at 48%, which is still within the margin of error.

The gubernatorial race was tied last month, as an Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey in September showed both nominees tied at 43%, with 11% undecided.

In the last New Jersey governor's race, Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy beat Ciattarelli by 3 percentage points, and former Vice President Harris won the state last year by about 6 points.

New Jersey has not elected a gubernatorial candidate of the same political party as the outgoing elected governor since 1961.

Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball noted the significant gender gap in the polling.

“Heading into Election Day, the gender divide in the gubernatorial election has solidified: men break for Ciattarelli by 16 points, while women break for Sherrill by 18 points,” Kimball said. “Since last month, Ciattarelli’s lead among men increased by four points, and Sherill’s lead among women grew by eight points.” 

The Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey was conducted between Oct. 25 and Oct. 28, of 1,000 respondents who have already voted or are very likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.