EU hammers out policies to harden borders amid likelihood of refugees from deadly uprising in Iran

The European Union is hammering out the terms of new policies to harden its borders as the political uprising in Iran raises the likelihood of a new wave of refugees. And any agreement would likely test the bloc’s fragile consensus over which migrants get protection and which ones should be sent home.

The EU’s long-delayed Migration and Asylum Pact is scheduled to enter into force in June, but its terms for implementation are still being negotiated.

Frontex, the European Union’s Border and Coast Guard Agency, reported last month that arrivals of “irregular” migrants – those who arrive without legal authorization – totaled just under 167,000 over the first 11 months of 2025, a decline of 25% compared to the same period a year earlier.

But that trend could be reversed this year, as dramatic protests all across Iran, a threat of new sanctions, and even the eventual possibility of a U.S.-led military action against the country’s ruling regime, are contributing to the destabilization of the region. If that happens, it could trigger a wave of refugees from Iran and surrounding countries that could dwarf previous mass migration surges.

This past weekend, a top Iranian diplomat at the United Nations in Geneva reportedly asked for asylum in Switzerland. An Iranian official says at least 5,000 people have been killed. 

In an editorial, Modern Diplomacy noted that the 2011 conflict in Syria, a country of 23 million, sparked an exodus of migrants to Europe that changed the trajectory of European migration policy. Iran, home to 90 million people, could create a far larger migration crisis.

"The current migration crisis would pale in comparison to the geopolitical humanitarian nightmare of bringing a 90-million-person country to its knees," the opinion piece said.

These growing risks come as Europe struggles with even current levels of migration.

Italy, under the leadership of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, has been pushing the European Union to reform its immigration policies for years. But earlier this month, the union of 27 member states was scolded by the Council of Europe, an advocacy group, for leading a move to “reduce the rights of asylum seekers” in the country.

“If [Italian] authorities start designating large groups of people they don’t like and whose protections should be weakened, we are venturing into dangerous and slippery ground,” said Michael O’Flaherty, the Council of Europe’s commissioner for Human Rights.

Meanwhile, Germany, which opened its borders to more than 1 million refugees a decade ago, is now among those leading Europe’s anti-immigration turn. The U.K., which is not part of the European Union, has launched a widespread effort to crack down on illegal workers in the country.

Portuguese leaders said they were willing to pay other countries “millions” to take in asylum seekers that would otherwise end up in Portugal. Belgium says it wants foreign aid to be tied to promises from developing countries that they would take back refugees from their countries.

France and Spain are on the other side of the discussion, with French authorities this week banning far-right anti-migrant activists from the U.K. from legally entering France, and Spain inviting Pope Leo XIV to observe its migrant centers first hand and Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez saying his country’s policies should be an example for the rest of Europe.

Amid the divides, the still-not-completed Migration and Asylum Pact, which is expected to enter into force in six months, is already drawing fire from critics who said it was on pace to be a “betrayal of [Europe’s] values.”

The public demonstrations in Iran against the government, which started in late December with the collapse of the country's currency, threatens to complicate matters even further, forcing European countries into a difficult balancing act between humanitarian obligations in the EU charter with internal political pressures for stricter border controls.