Languid economic sentiment mirrors ‘92 pre-Clinton doldrums, could turn around in time for midterms

Recent polling from Napolitan News Service reveals less-than-thrilling economic sentiment heading into the holidays. The study, published on Wednesday, reports that only 26% of voters say their finances are improving with another 36% saying their finances are getting worse. 

The ratio was similar two weeks ago when 25% said their finances were getting better, while 39% said it was getting worse. Napolitan reports that this is the most pessimistic voters have been since before the 2024 election, when 25% said their finances were getting better and 41% said worse.

Six month window

Founder of Napolitan, Scott Rasmussen, told Just the News, "The single most important political indicator for any election is how people feel about their personal finances. If people are this pessimistic on Election Day next year, the Democrats will win the House handily and have a serious chance of winning the Senate."

"So what happens to the economy in the six months will define the midterm elections."

In the lead-up to the 1992 presidential election, the U.S. economy was emerging from a mild recession that began in July 1990 and officially ended in March 1991, with real GDP growth resuming at a sluggish pace of about 2.7% for the year. Despite this technical recovery, unemployment climbed to 7.5% by mid-1992, the highest in eight years, fueling perceptions of a "jobless recovery" where productivity gains outpaced job creation. 

This disconnect between macroeconomic indicators and voters' pocketbook realities contributed significantly to President George H.W. Bush's defeat, as challenger Bill Clinton capitalized on widespread frustration with stagnant wages and rising poverty rates near 15%.

As of December 2025, the U.S. economy mirrors aspects of that 1992 lag, with real GDP surging 3.8% annualized in Q2 and an estimated 3.9% in Q3, yet consumer sentiment remains subdued below the neutral 50 mark on the Economic Optimism Index at 47.9. Unemployment has ticked up to 4.4% in September, the highest since late 2021, while headline CPI inflation holds at 3.0% year-over-year, squeezing household budgets amid a 43-day government shutdown's lingering effects. 

Feeling the pinch

Personal consumption expenditures grew robustly at 2.8% annualized in early Q3, but high-income households are driving the gains, leaving many middle- and lower-income voters feeling the pinch from tariff-induced price hikes in groceries and apparel without corresponding wage relief.

If economic improvements accelerate into early 2026 as forecast  — with GDP growth projected at 1.9% for the year and unemployment stabilizing around 4.5% — voters could start feeling tangible benefits like moderated inflation to 3.2% and steadier job gains just as midterm campaigns intensify. 

This timely "kitchen table" boost might bolster congressional incumbents' prospects, akin to how delayed recovery perceptions doomed Bush in 1992, potentially shifting voter turnout and priorities toward optimism over frustration. However, persistent uncertainties from policy volatility and uneven spending could still amplify turnout among discontented demographics, making the midterms a referendum on whether indexes finally translate to wallets.