Cook Political Report shifts Iowa, Texas races to tossups

Cook Political Report provides race rankings based on polling data and research.

Published: August 20, 2026 1:51pm

The Cook Political Report on Thursday moved its ratings for the Iowa and Texas Senate ratings from Republican-leaning to toss-ups, marking the latest indicator that the Senate, once thought safely Republican for the cycle, may be up for grabs,

Cook Political Report provides race rankings based on polling data and research. While Iowa and Texas both currently have Republican senators, polling has suggested that Democrats could emerge on top in both states.

"Republicans still retain a structural advantage given the partisan challenges of the map, and Democrats still need almost every key race to break their way," Cook's Jessica Taylor wrote. "But as we recently wrote, in a wave election akin to 2006, even states that President Donald Trump won by double digits could move within Democrats’ reach."

In Texas, state Attorney General Ken Paxton is facing off against Democrat James Talarico. He previously ousted Sen. Jon Cornyn, R-Texas, in the primary race.

But Paxton faces several challenges and has weathered a series of personal scandals, including an unsuccessful impeachment attempt.

In Iowa, Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, is running to replace the retiring Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, and faces Democrat Josh Turek. The RealClearPolitics polling average has shown him Hinson with a 0.7% lead.

Ben Whedon is the Chief Political Correspondent for Just the News. Follow him on X.

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