Report shows that rising health care costs could affect midterm elections

(The Center Square) - A recent report shows rising health care costs could push voters left in this year’s elections, but distrust on the issue extends to both parties.

Health care costs topped Americans’ economic stressors in a Kaiser Family Foundation poll with an outlook on the Nov. 3, 2026 general election.

Voters across the political spectrum expressed lower confidence in the Trump administration in recent months to help lower health care costs. The shift comes after a popular Affordable Care Act subsidy extension expired in December 2025.

Health insurance rates for Nevadans could rise by at least 34% in 2026, according to a Value Penguin report. The report’s author, Talon Abernathy, previously told The Center Square how the ACA cuts could impact the price of health care. “That would be the primary driver, and it’s kind of a double whammy here.”

Abernathy explained people enrolled in the ACA program will no longer see the same health care discounts. At the same time, insurance companies are assuming healthier people will leave their insurance, which puts more of the cost on people who remain, even those not enrolled in ACA.

“That's going to create a bit of a doom-loop spiral where healthier people leave the marketplace, and the remaining population is sicker," Abernathy said.

In the KFF poll, nearly one-third of respondents said they were very worried about health care costs. Two-thirds said they were at least somewhat worried – more than on questions about groceries, rent, utilities or gas. The survey took place from Jan. 13-20 and asked 1,426 U.S. adults.

Nearly half (44%) of respondents said health care costs would have a major impact on their decision to vote in 2026, and which party they would support (43%). The response was skewed by political affiliation, with only one-fifth of Republican voters agreeing about the existence of an impact. Two-thirds of Democrats said the rising costs would be an impact.

More than 40% of independently registered voters said the price of health care would impact their vote in 2026. In Nevada, more than a third of registered voters are independent, making up the largest voting group ahead of the Democrats and Republicans.

Independents were also more likely to say they trusted the Democratic Party (35%) over the Republican Party (15%) to address the issue of rising health care costs, but were most likely to say they trusted neither party (39%).

In the wake of the ACA extended subsidy expiration, two-thirds of respondents blamed Congress and said lawmakers erred by not renewing the extension. This too is heavily dependent on party affiliation. Democratic (89%) and independent (72%) voters widely opposed the end of the extension, while most Republican (63%) and "Make America Great Again" (64%) voters supported the move.

The average monthly cost of health insurance in the U.S. rose 21% in 2026 to $752, according to a Value Penguin report. The report uses a silver health plan for a 40-year-old, considered a middle-ground option according to the report’s authors. In Nevada, the average monthly price in 2026 is $792.

On the broader cost of living crisis in the U.S., voters expressed a general lack of confidence in the country’s leaders to fix the issue. President Donald Trump (62%), Democrats (63%) and Republicans (64%) in Congress all received nearly two-thirds votes of "not too much" confidence to "no" confidence to address the general cost of living.