GOP tries to pad House majority in 2 Florida special elections, but races appear unexpectedly close

The special congressional elections Tuesday to replace former GOP Reps. Mike Waltz and Matt Gaetz were supposed to be nearly-sure wins for Republicans trying to add to their narrow House majority, considering both districts lean heavily Republican – yet each appears tighter than expected going into Election Day.

In Florida's 6th congressional district race, state Sen. Randy Fine is competing against teacher and Democrat Josh Weil, in a district that stretches from the north-central coast to the middle of the state. Trump won the district by 30 points in 2024. 

But a survey conducted last week in the race to replace former Waltz, who resigned his seat to become Trump's national security adviser, shows Fine winning just over 48% of the vote, while Weil received just over 44%. However, the pollsters reported a 4.9% margin of error, greater than Fine’s lead.

The 50-year-old Fine was first elected to the state's House of Representatives in 2016, then to the state Senate in 2024. 

He says on his campaign website that his main objectives are to protect Social Security and Medicare, secure the southern U.S. border, lower insurance rates, ensure honesty and transparency in the federal government, and protect the "right to life and the ability to defend it via the Second Amendment."

Fine has been endorsed by local law enforcement, Trump, Waltz, House Speaker Mike Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Florida GOP Sen. Rick Scott.

“We’re just a few days away from an all-important special election taking place in your state on Tuesday, April 1, and I’m asking you to get out and vote for a true American patriot, somebody that I’ve gotten to know very well, Randy Fine,” Trump said during a tele-rally for Fine last week. 

Other concerns are Weil having a nearly 10-to-1 fundraising advantage over Fine and less than 51% of voters in the district approving of the job Trump is doing as president.

Fine on former Trump adviser Steve Bannon’s “War Room” podcast last week acknowledged the early vote gap. 

“The Democrats are mad and the Republicans aren’t. And we have to make them mad. We have to make them understand just what’s at stake,” he said, later adding, “I know we have good election days, but we need to run up that score right now.”

The elections come as Republicans hold a narrow 218-213 House majority.

In Florida's 1st congressional district, Jimmy Patronis, who has been serving in state politics for over two decades, is competing against gun violence prevention activist Democrat Gay Valimont for Gaetz's seat. 

Patronis, the state's chief financial officer who got an early Trump endorsement, said Sunday that his priorities include strengthening the economy, reducing taxes and rebuilding the U.S. military.

"I’ve never been outspent in a race before. They’re out spending me seven-to-one. Dollars are coming in from all over the country and it’s crazy. My opponent has so much money,” he also said on Saturday’s “Fox and Friends Weekend.”

Valimont, whom Gaetz defeated handily in November has brought in more than $6 million, compared to Patronis' $1.2 million.

Trump in 2024 won the Panhandle district with 66% of the vote.

Still, Republicans sound optimistic about winning both races.

“We’re confident we’re gonna win the seat,” National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Richard Hudson, R-N.C., said last week about the 6th District race, later adding that Republicans are feeling “comfortable” about the 1st District.

Misty Severi is a news reporter for Just The News. You can follow her on X for more coverage.