Iran peace deal comes just before supply crunch threatens oil markets

Oil executives have been warning for the past couple of weeks that inventories are reaching severely low levels. If the peace deal is signed and the Strait of Hormuz opened, it could take months before inventories are replenished.

By Kevin Killough

Published: June 15, 2026 11:40am

An agreement to end the war in Iran is set to be signed in Geneva, Switzerland, on Friday. If the deal is signed, it comes just as oil inventories are starting to run dry.

Mike Wirth, CEO of Chevron, has repeatedly warned that the globe was nearing a supply crunch. Neil Chapman, senior vice president of ExxonMobil, has said U.S. inventories were nearing historic lows, and Wil VanLoh of the Quantum Capital Group has said "it's going to get ugly," the Wall Street Journal reported.

VanLoh said that when inventories get to a certain point, prices begin to rapidly climb.

Since late March, the U.S. has tapped approximately 66 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and another 106 million barrels has been authorized to be released. If these releases are executed, the SPR will be down to 243 million barrels, the lowest level since before the 1980s.

Trump is saying that, if the deal is signed, the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which 20% of the globe's crude oil flows, would be opened immediately. If so, it will still take months before inventories will be back up to where they were before the conflict. Refilling the SPR, which was severely drained by the Biden administration in 2022, will take years.