Special elections stand as early gauge of Trump support, strength of resistance

Tuesday evening will see voters head to the polls in Wisconsin and Florida to fill a state Supreme Court seat and two congressional seats, respectively, offering opportunities to both Trump’s supporters and detractors to demonstrate their vigor.

Florida’s congressional contests will fill the seats of national security advisor Mike Waltz and Trump’s first pick for attorney general, Matt Gaetz. Gaetz resigned after he failed to secure enough support for confirmation. Their districts are solidly Republican, though their would-be replacements are facing tougher-than-expected contests due, in part, to Democrats funneling millions of dollars into those races from outside the district.

In Wisconsin, meanwhile, the state Supreme Court race will decide the majority on the bench and likely have implications for the congressional maps, election integrity, abortion and a host of other issues. Heavyweight GOP figures such as Elon Musk have campaigned on behalf of Brad Schimel, hoping to push him over the finish line, though the race remains close.

Tuesday evening’s outcomes will serve as a potential metric for the level of Trump’s support after a tumultuous first two months saw him upend several federal agencies and substantially alter the course of American foreign policy.

Republicans currently maintain a 218-213 majority in the House. The prospect of two possible upsets in Florida and court intervention in Wisconsin’s districts could render Republican control of the House all the more precarious. Fears of an upset in either the First or Sixth Congressional Districts have Republicans worried and Trump himself went so far as to withdraw his nomination of Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., to serve as UN Ambassador, keeping her in the House to maintain a stronger grip on Congress.

Wisconsin

The state Supreme Court race has pitted Waukesha County Circuit Court Judge Brad Schimel against Dane County Circuit Court Judge Susan Crawford. The court currently has four liberal judges and three conservatives. Liberal Supreme Court Justice Ann Walsh Bradley’s retirement, however, has put the majority up for grabs.

The battleground state has been a hotspot for election integrity fights in recent years, especially as the state narrowly backed Trump in 2016 and 2024, but narrowly backed President Joe Biden in 2020. Voters also face a constitutional amendment to require voter ID in the state. High-profile Republicans, including President Donald Trump and Elon Musk, have lined up behind both Schimel’s campaign and the voter ID initiative.

“For State Supreme Court, make sure to Vote for America First Patriot, Brad Schimel, against Susan Crawford, a Radical Left Liberal, with a History of letting child molesters and rapists off easy,” Trump posted on Monday. “She will be one of the most Liberal Judges ever elected, which would be a DISASTER for Wisconsin and, the United States of America.”

Musk, for his part, traveled to Wisconsin this week to stump for Schimel and even launched a $2 million giveaway to Schimel supporters. Though that effort faced legal challenges, the state Supreme Court declined to block his efforts.

On X, Musk specifically highlighted the stakes of the race for control of Congress, warning that "[t]he Republican House majority is razor-thin and the Democrats want to redraw Wisconsin districts to flip the House and stop the government reforms." 

Trump campaigned extensively on election integrity during the 2024 contest, especially in light of past election fraud claims in the Dairy State. The issue has been something of an afterthought for Trump since reclaiming the White House, though the referendum and state Supreme Court race mark a notable foray into the issue in a crucial battleground state.

Polymarket betting odds currently give Crawford an 87% shot at winning. Polling, however, shows a closer race, with a recent Trafalgar/InsiderAdvantage survey showing Crawford with 50.8% support to Schimel’s 49.2%.

Florida District 1

The state’s First Congressional District has long been represented by Gaetz, though his departure from Congress has cleared the way for state Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, R, to run against Democrat Gay Valimont. Valimont previously challenged Gaetz in November but was soundly defeated.

The circumstances of the special election, as well as its implications for the House majority, have Democrats going all-in on a normally safe Republican seat. Valimont has thus far raised more than $6 million while Patronis has raised a mere $1.2 million. NBC News reported last week that the Democratic National Committee announced it was sending funds to the Florida Democratic Party, though it did not specify how much. 

"I’ve never been outspent in a race before. They’re outspending me seven-to-one. Dollars are coming in from all over the country and it’s crazy. My opponent has so much money,” he said on Saturday. Patronis earned the support of Trump, who weighed in with an endorsement over the weekend, saying “Jimmy has been a wonderful friend to me, and to MAGA.”

“As your next Congressman, Jimmy will fight hard alongside of me to Grow our Economy, Cut Taxes, Secure our Border, Stop Migrant Crime, Strengthen our Brave Military/Vets, Restore American Energy DOMINANCE, and Defend our always under siege Second Amendment,” he said.

Despite the fundraising advantage, the Democrats are not favored to win and betting markets are currently posting odds, not on the prospect of a Democratic upset, but on Patronis’ margin of victory, though he faces 67% odds of winning by less than 20%.

Florida District 6

In the state’s Sixth Congressional District, state Sen. Randy Fine, R, is vying with Democratic candidate Josh Weil to replace Waltz. The district, which Trump won by more than 30 points was not expected to host a close race, though polling data has the contest in single digits.

Weil has a 10 to 1 fundraising advantage in his favor, which may explain the extraordinarily tight race. Trump on Monday, urged supporters to back Fine, calling him “highly successful, Harvard educated businessman, and greatly respected State Legislator.”

As of Saturday, early voting results showed Fine with a lead over Weil, potentially signaling that polling data had overstated the competitiveness of the race. A late March survey from St. Pete Polls showed Fine with 48% of the vote to Weil’s 44%, but that poll had a 4.9% margin of error.

Fine remains the favorite on betting markets, though he faces 62% odds of winning by single digits and a 35% shot at winning by between 10% and 15%.