Pope's death brings sorrow and uncertainty over whether church returns to more traditional doctrine

As Catholic Church officials prepare for Pope Francis’s funeral Saturday, Vatican watchers are already looking ahead to the Conclave that will determine whether the church will continue in the progressive direction Francis charted or return to a more traditional path.

Francis, who died early Monday at the age of 88 after suffering a stroke and heart failure, had been among the most influential figures on the global left during his 12-year papacy.

His championing of progressive causes including the rights of refugees, tolerance toward LGBTQ+ communities, increased roles for women, compassion toward the marginalized, and the need for better stewardship of the environment has earned praise from supporters but the deep ire of critics with a belief in a strict moral order and obedience to tradition.

Before his election in 2013, the former Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio was a moderate and low-key reformer. When he addressed the College of Cardinals for the first time as pontiff, Francis told them, “May God forgive you for what you’ve done.” The remark was seen as a gesture of humility at the time, but it’s taken on new weight in hindsight. 

Opposition to Francis among high-profile Catholics has been a steady drumbeat since he was elected.

Carlo Maria Viganò, Francis’ first U.S. ambassador, for example, has called the recently deceased pontiff a “false prophet” and a “servant of Satan,” leading to his excommunication last year.

Early in Francis’ papacy, U.S. Cardinal Raymond Burke, a traditionalist, said that under the then-new papacy, “There is a strong sense that the church is like a ship without a rudder.” Burke was demoted in 2023.

Earlier this year, Francis criticized U.S. Vice President JD Vance, a Catholic, for arguing that the Trump administration’s crackdown on migrants and its big cutbacks on foreign aid were consistent with the Catholic doctrine of “ordo amoris” (Latin for “correctly ordered love”). It was a notion Francis – who met with Vance at the Vatican less than 24 hours before his demise – rejected out of hand, calling it a “disgrace.”

Now, as the world awaits the outcome of the Conclave that will determine the direction of the church in the coming decades, the question looms large: Will the next pope reflect the views of conservative Catholics, or will they be further marginalized by another progressive papacy?

The question of who will succeed Francis is not just about the future of the church – it is a matter of global significance that will shape the relationship between the Catholic faithful and the wider world.

The conclave that will pick Francis’ successor is scheduled to get underway at some point between May 6 and May 12 – time to conduct Francis’ funeral and for the 135 Cardinal-electors from 71 different countries to come to Rome. Of those 135, Francis appointed 108 of them, something that insiders say could make it less likely for someone too distant from Francis’ views to gain traction in a conclave.

“It will be difficult for an ‘anti-Francis’ pope to emerge,” said Iacopo Scaramuzzi, author of the book Tango Vaticano: La Chiesa al Tempo di Francis (Vatican Tango: The Church in the Time of Francis). But he said that did not necessarily mean the next pope would be progressive.

“It doesn’t mean [Cardinals are] unanimous and cohesive, or that they have the same ideas,” Scaramuzzi said. “Also, maybe there is a desire for someone more orderly and less charismatic. Several things can carry weight at the time of the vote, which can either move towards a more progressive or conservative choice.”

There are other commentators who say it is a mistake to use the same left/right spectrum applied to secular politics when it comes to the Vatican. 

“Will the next pope be liberal or conservative? Neither,” one commentator opined.