Trump’s effort to peel Russia away from China meets resistance as Putin escalates war

As President Donald Trump seeks to split Russia from China in a gamble of realpolitik, Moscow shows little signs of responding to Washington’s overtures—ramping up attacks on Ukraine and publicly displaying a show of unity with its partners China and Iran. 

Russian, Chinese and Iranian warships launched an annual joint exercise in the Gulf of Oman on Monday, projecting public unity in a triangular axis that is increasingly aligning, in economic and military cooperation, against the United States in key regions across the globe even as the Trump administration tries to entice Moscow. "The “Security Belt-2025” drills, taking place near the Iranian port of Chabahar, is the fifth joint naval exercise Iran, China and Russia have held since 2019, according to Chinese state media," CNN reported.

In an October 2024 pre-election interview, then-candidate Trump called for a shift in U.S. policy toward the two countries, blaming past administrations for pushing Russia and China together, a situation which he described as a “dangerous thing.” 

“We united them, because of the oil. We united them. Biden united them. It’s a shame, the stupidity of what they have done,” Trump told former Fox News host Tucker Carlson at a campaign stop in Arizona last year. “I’m going to have to un-unite them, and I think I can do that, too. I have to un-unite them.” 

Much of the Trump administration’s early foreign policy moves can be explained by the president’s perception of this relationship, which has grown stronger in recent years. Trump’s efforts to pressure Ukraine and woo Russia into a ceasefire — and eventually peace — in the Russia-Ukraine war is part of this gamble. Principally, the administration is concerned with isolating China from its allies because it poses the most formidable military and economic threat to the United States. 

Putin pounds Ukraine while Trump entices

However, there is little evidence that the American overtures floating economic benefits for Russia have been received favorably by Moscow. After the first meeting between Russian and U.S. officials since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said “incredible opportunity” exists for the United States and Russia to cooperate if the war ends. 

“Should this conflict come to an acceptable end, the incredible opportunities that exist to partner with the Russians, geopolitically on issues of common interest, and frankly economically on issues that hopefully will be good for the world and will also improve our relations in the long term between these two important countries,” Rubio told reporters in Saudi Arabia last month. 

This proposition has been echoed by other administration officials as Trump ratchets up pressure on his Ukrainian counterpart to express willingness to compromise in negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war. The Trump administration pulled all military aid and reportedly cut off intelligence sharing to Ukraine after President Zelensky left Washington without signing a minerals deal favored by President Trump as a first step in the peace process. 

Following that public falling-out earlier this month, the Russian military ramped up its war machine, steadily advancing on the eastern front and increasing its missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities and military targets alike, leaving civilian casualties in its wake, reportedly angering Trump. 

“Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely ‘pounding’ Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED. To Russia and Ukraine, get to the table right now, before it is too late. Thank you!!!” Trump posted to his social media platform Truth Social last Friday.

But, it appears Moscow brushed off the threats. Following the message, Russian forces continued to fire missiles at Ukrainian cities, killing 21 people and injuring nearly 100 others—the deadliest day for civilians this year in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Russian officials have signaled unwillingness to compromise to achieve a peace deal in Ukraine. For example, after French and British leaders discussed a European peacekeeping force with President Trump, the Russians flatly ruled out the possibility. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia would not “consider any options” with European peacekeeping forces, claiming it would only further fuel conflict. 

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it even more directly, that the presence of European peacekeepers would inevitably lead to conflict: “[It’s] not going to be about probability, but inevitability,” Peskov said, according to Russian state media. 

Experts say that Russia and China are unlikely to split, as both powers maintain strong interests in challenging the U.S.-led global system established after World War II. Additionally, Moscow and Beijing have grown closer economically and militarily as their leaders have established a personal rapport. 

China’s share of Russia's foreign trading increased from 18% to 33% from 2021 to 2023 as the war has dragged on. Russia’s exports of crude oil to China also increased to record highs in 2023, Reuters said. Last month, Chinese President Xi Jinping reaffirmed a “no limits” partnership in a phone call with his counterpart President Putin, the same phrase used by the leaders on the eve of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. 

It could backfire by heightening US/EU polarization 

It “is the reverse of the ‘reverse Nixon,’” Evan Feigenbaum, a former State Department official and fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the Wall Street Journal. He said the president is “attempting to split an entente between two powers that have ideological affinity and shared strategic interests.” 

He also warned that these efforts could end up backfiring, by splitting up the Western alliance. “And what it has done instead is to split the West, while Russia aligns with the U.S. and with China simultaneously,” he concluded. 

Rebecca Grant, national security analyst and Vice President of the Lexington Institute, told the "Just the News, No Noise" TV show earlier this month that the United States should be wary of China attempting to foment a split between the U.S. and Europe while it attempts to peel Russia away. She said the spat between Trump and Zelensky over the proposed mineral deal may provide an opening for China to assert itself, to the United States’ detriment. 

“[K]eeping China away from Europe is a huge priority, and that was part of the essence of the minerals deal,” Grant said. “Putin wouldn't be in Ukraine without China's full backing. China would love to see NATO and the West and the US all fall apart and start infighting that would really go to their plan, and they'd like to go in and pick off more NATO members with economic development projects and Huawei network gear. We cannot let that happen.” 

“And," Grant added, "NATO has been very good about owning up to the China threat. And so we can't let this blow-up by Zelensky getting us to a point where China is able to step in and be clever and take advantage."