Both political parties ante up, seeking big win in Tennessee congressional race

Voters in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District are casting ballots to decide who will succeed U.S. Rep. Mark Green in a rare December election marked by millions in donations from political action committees for both sides.

Republican ads depict Democrat Aftyn Behn as a "radical disaster" with an "agenda that Tennessee cannot afford."

Behn said in a social media post that her campaign is about affordability. She attacks Republican policies on health care and taxes more than she goes after her opponent, Matt Van Epps, former commissioner of the Tennessee Department of General Services.

Next Tuesday's race is drawing national attention, especially since the surprise resignation of U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene will in January trim the already thin Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.

"The Republicans are pretty worried that they could lose this race or it gets close enough that it continues the narrative that they're on the defensive so they're pouring in resources to try to fight that perception," said Dr. John Geer, a Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Vanderbilt University and Gertrude Conway Vanderbilt Chair, in an interview with The Center Square. "The Democrats are putting money in too because there's a small chance that they could pull an upset."

Geer, who also leads Vanderbilt's Project on Unity and American Democracy, said he wouldn't rely on polling data to predict the race.

"Because you've got to figure out who are the likely voters and what's the model to decide who's going to be voting in a congressional special election on a very unusual date," Geer said. "People aren't use to voting on Dec. 2 in an off-year election in the middle of the holidays."

The primary election drew about 67,000 voters – 31,000 Democrats and 36,000 Republicans. Early voting numbers from the Tennessee Secretary of State's Office indicate that just over 63,000 people have cast their ballots. Early voting ends Wednesday.

The district stretches through a swath of middle Tennessee from the Kentucky border to the Alabama border.

"The district was set up after the 2020 Census to favor the Republicans," Geer said. "There had been a district in mostly Davidson County that was very blue and had elected and reelected Jim Cooper countless times and the Republican state Legislature decided to take Jim's seat away from him and create three Republican districts as a result."

The most interesting story may come after the votes are counted, according to Geer. If Behn wins, that will be a "mega story," he said. But even if she loses, the election could send a message to the Republican Party.

"Let's say Van Epps wins by seven or eight points," Geer said. "Given that Green won by 20, is the interpretation going to be that this is continuing to show Republican weakness because nobody would count on this district to be in the Democratic column come 2026? So if it's close enough, does that just cause you concern or has the spending been so effective by the Republicans attacking Behn for being a radical and that it actually gets Van Epps up to a 15, 16 point victory then that suggests additional strength for the GOP."

The Center Square was unsuccessful prior to publication of getting comment from each campaign.