‘Charlie Kirk effect’ in full force as voters register Republican in large numbers

On Sunday, as tens of thousands of mourners filled State Farm Arena in Glendale, Arizona, for a memorial service for Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk, voter registration tables at the event were inundated with future voters. 

The massive event doubled as a tribute to Kirk's lifelong focus on conservative activism and youth outreach. In line with his legacy, voter registration booths staffed by Turning Point volunteers were set up inside the stadium, drawing significant participation.

200,000 to 300,000 attendees, many register to vote

Turning Point USA has not published official voter registration data. However, approximately 200,000 people registered for tickets for the memorial in advance and estimates report that there were 200,000 to 300,000 with overflow. On-site law enforcement corroborated these estimates. Given the scale of attendance, that could translate to thousands of new registrations, given the crowd size and focus on unregistered conservatives (roughly 30% of U.S. Christians are unregistered, a group Kirk spent significant time and treasure to engage).

Recent data show GOP voter registration gains in key states like Pennsylvania, where Republicans clocked in at +3,022 net in the days following Kirk's assassination (week ending September 22). This included 1,756 Democrat-to-Republican switches. Additionally, North Carolina and Arizona both outpaced prior months and linked the surge directly to the assassination and memorial. 

The "Charlie Kirk Effect"

Matt Margolis of PJ Media remarked that "Some on the left celebrated the attack." That reaction has now triggered what’s being called the “Charlie Kirk effect,” a historic wave of Democrats abandoning their party and joining the GOP. 

On Sunday, Kirk's wife, Erika, publicly forgave her husband's alleged killer. By contrast, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., told CNN viewers that if his party regains power, they will use the government to go after anybody "doing the bidding of the Trump administration."

That message of unity by Kirk and the message of disunity by Jeffries could be driving political sentiment more than Democrats may realize or would like to recognize. 

Democrats losing on the economy, immigration and crime

CNN's Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten broke down numbers from a new Washington Post/IPSOS poll showing that Democrats are underwater on three major issues: the economy, immigration and crime.

When asked which party is trusted more on the economy, Republicans had a seven-point lead. On immigration, an issue for which Democrats have demonized the Trump administration, Republicans are up by 13 points. California's Democratic Speaker of the California State Assembly recently referred to ICE agents as "secret police." 

As for crime, blue-city mayors and sanctuary state governors are under investigation for allegedly trying to falsify crime data in opposition to Trump's utilizing the National Guard in several cities.

Independent voters are tilting to GOP as well

Independents in the poll favored Republicans by one point on the economy, ten points on immigration and 21 points on crime. He also reflected on the same poll leading into the 2022 midterm elections, which resulted in a 12-point lead on the economy for Republicans, a three-point lead for Republicans on immigration. On crime, Republicans saw a 13-point lead.

"At this particular point, the ball may be on the ground, but the Democrats have not picked up the ball and run with it. If anything at this particular point, it's the Republicans who are running with the ball on the top issues of the economy, immigration and crime," Enten said.