Federal worker layoffs may complicate Virginia GOP gubernatorial nominee’s path to victory

President Donald Trump’s promise to cut wasteful spending in the federal government by reducing its workforce may have a negative impact on the electoral chances of the Republican nominee in the Virginia gubernatorial election since many federal employees live in the Old Dominion.

The reduction of the federal workforce could help Democrats in November, when voters go to the polls in the general election for Virginia’s governor.

As of September, Virginia is the state with the second-highest number of federal employees, not including Washington, D.C. Virginia is home to 147,358 federal workers, a few thousand short of the state with the largest amount, California, at 150,679. OpenSecrets.org posted documents showing that of the American Federation of Government Employees political contributions, 95.76% went to Democrats in 2024. 

There are about 2 million federal government employees, and thousands have been laid off or taken the federal buyout option. Mass layoffs have already occurred for probationary federal employees, who have been working for less than a year, as the Trump administration ordered agencies to let them go. As of last March, there were 220,000 of them.

On Tuesday, the Education Department let go 1,315 employees, with just about 2,183 employees left, as Trump is seeking to completely dispense with the agency. Last month, about 75,000 federal employees chose the buyout, which allowed them to resign and receive financial incentives such as months of paid leave if they left by Feb. 6. Additionally, some 80,000 employees from the Health and Human Services Department were offered a $25,000 buyout that they have until Friday at 5 p.m. to accept.

Wins and losses in court challenges

However, some layoffs and buyout programs have been challenged in court. A San Francisco federal district court judge ruled on Thursday that the Trump administration had to reinstate thousands of probationary employees who were fired last month from multiple federal agencies.

At the same time, a Boston federal district court judge had temporarily halted the administration’s buyout program last month but dissolved his temporary restraining order and allowed the program to continue. ABC News reported that "According to U.S. District Judge George A. O'Toole Jr., the federal unions who challenged the policy are not directly impacted by the buyout offer; rather they are subject to collateral impacts such as a reduction in union membership and needing to answer their members' questions about the policy."

Virginia governor offering help to laid-off workers

In what appears to be a plan of mutual self-interest, the current Republican governor is attempting to provide a smooth transition by making it easier for former federal employees to find work in the commonwealth. Amid the federal layoffs, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) announced a new website called "Virginia Has Jobs" to help people find jobs in the commonwealth. The new jobs website boasts that there are more than 250,000 jobs available in Virginia and has a page specifically for “Impacted Federal Workers.” While Youngkin said he empathizes with those who lost their jobs, he supports Trump’s effort to cut government waste and fraud.

"Listen, we have a federal government that is inefficient, and we have an administration that is taking on that challenge of rooting out waste, fraud and abuse and driving efficiency in our federal government. It needs to happen," Youngkin said.

As the White House is focusing on trimming the federal government, Virginia's Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears said that taxpayers do not want to spend more on the government than is necessary, and that Trump is fulfilling his campaign promises. “The president was elected fully explaining what he was going to do,” Earle-Sears said. “He didn’t hide anything from anyone.” Earle-Sears has been noted by some political observers as the presumptive GOP candidate, but that may be changing as primary challengers have entered the race.

She also voiced support for Trump’s efforts to audit the federal government. “The president, if I’m understanding right, what he’s doing is he’s assessing,” she said. “He’s making an audit of who’s doing what, how are they doing it, where are they doing it and how are they supposed to be doing it? Is it according to the law? Can we make some savings?”

Earle-Sears, who has been endorsed by Youngkin, also defended Trump’s actions to cut down on government bureaucracy. “No one likes bureaucracy – we want to get things done,” Earle-Sears said. “And unfortunately, sometimes the government stands in the way of the people.”

Democrats may be "stacking up some advantages" 

The Democratic candidate for Virginia governor, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, said that Trump’s layoffs will negatively impact the commonwealth. “Not only have I heard from federal employees in Virginia who are worried about their livelihoods and their ability to take care of their families, but I’ve also heard from business leaders, contractors, and small business owners who are rightfully nervous about what these attacks mean for the stability of our Commonwealth’s economy,” Spanberger said in a statement.

The federal government layoffs are not the sole factor in the Virginia gubernatorial race as historically, the commonwealth tends to elect a governor who is of the opposite political party of the president.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told Just the News on Tuesday, “It’s fairly common for the non-presidential party to win the Virginia gubernatorial race – over the last half-century, the state has only elected one governor whose party was the same as the occupant of the White House (Terry McAuliffe in 2013). Before then, you have to go back to 1973 to find another example.

“Additionally, off-year elections are often more about a backlash to what the party in power is doing, and Virginia is a Democratic-leaning state with a lot of voters who may be concerned about what’s going on across the Potomac in Washington. Add it all up, and there are some real potential environmental advantages for Democrats in the Virginia elections.”

Kondik told the Washington Examiner that the federal layoffs may benefit Spanberger in the race. “If you add up the fact that Virginia voted against Trump three times and the disruptions of the federal workforce, which you might feel more of in Virginia than in other places, you start stacking up some advantages for Spanberger,” Kondik said.

He added that “If Spanberger were to lose my guess is that would be that low black voter turnout would be part of the reason why she lost. That doesn’t necessarily mean Earle-Sears is going to do well among black voters because black voters are an overwhelmingly Democratic constituency. I think that’s true even if the Republican candidate is black and the Democratic candidate is white, which is what we are headed toward, but that would be part of it.”

What the pollsters say

The RealClearPolitics Poll Average has Spanberger up by nearly seven points in the gubernatorial race at 42.8%, compared to Earle-Sears at 36%. While most polls show Spanberger with a single-digit lead, a poll released last month by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College indicates a double-digit lead for the Democratic candidate, with the former congresswoman at 39% compared to 24% for Earle-Sears. A Roanoke College survey also said that 32% of Virginia voters are undecided.

While the general election is expected to be Spanberger and Earle-Sears, there are still three other GOP candidates that the latter will have to face off against in the June primary election. The crowded primary could help Earle-Sears, according to Kondik.

“If you are going to have one challenger get in, you might as well have two because maybe if there’s any sort of non-Earle-Sears vote, they end up splitting it,” Kondik said. “In a general election, being 1000% pro-Trump is probably not where you want to be anyway. Glenn Youngkin was able to kind of balance it in his 2021 race and he also had the political environment at his back.”