Wave of congressional retirements sets stage for high-stakes 2026 midterm election

A wave of congressional retirements has set the stage for a high-stakes 2026 midterm election that will decide which party controls the House and Senate for President Donald Trump's final two years in office.

More Republicans than Democrats are leaving the House as both parties battle for control of the chamber.

There are 38 House members and 8 senators not seeking re-election so far. 

On the Senate side, four Democrats and four Republicans are stepping aside. 

Among the departures are Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), the longtime Republican leader who recently left his leadership position, as well as Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), the Democratic Whip.

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) and Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) are also leaving, which will be competitive Senate races to watch as they unfold.

Republican senators Joni Ernst of Iowa and Thom Tillis of N.C. are also not seeking re-election, while Tommy Tuberville of Alabama is running for governor.

In the House, notable names leaving the chamber include former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.), and Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas). 

A number of competitive House races are unfolding as a result of additional retirements.

Rep. David Schweikert, R-Ariz., is not running for re-election and running for governor, which is regarded as a toss-up, according to Cook Political Report.

Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine, is retiring in a GOP-leaning district, which will be a competitive race.

Rep. John James, R-Mich., is stepping down to run for governor. His seat is rated as “lean Republican” by Cook Political Report

Rep. Angie Craig, D-Minn., is leaving the House to run for Senate, creating a toss-up race in the second district. 

Redistricting could also have a significant impact on control of the House in the 2026 midterm election, given that the GOP currently has the majority in the chamber by 7 seats — 219 compared to the Democrats' 213 seats.

To date, six states have approved new congressional maps. Restricting is underway in Virginia currently.

California passed a new congressional map that could help the Democrats gain 5 seats, while Texas passed a new map that could lead to 5 additional GOP House seats. 

A bipartisan commission in Ohio approved a redistricting effort that could give the GOP two more seats. 

North Carolina and Missouri's redistricting efforts could give the GOP one additional House seat in each state compared to the current figures. 

In Utah, the Democrats might pick up one seat due to redistricting. 

As the 2026 midterms approach, all eyes will be on these open-seat contests. The growing number of retirements could make 2026 one of the most unpredictable midterm elections in recent history — with the potential to reshape the balance of power on Capitol Hill.