Trump plans to build major Northeast pipeline. Will New York’s Democrat governor get on board?

President Donald Trump met recently with New York Gov. Kathy Hochul to discuss, among other things, building a pipeline project that New York had blocked in 2020. Trump had discussed the meeting the day before. 

“We’re working on one project, and it should be very easy. It’s a pipeline going through a small section of New York. New York has held it up for years, actually,” Trump said on March 13. While he didn’t name the project, the president’s description fit that of the Constitution Pipeline. 

That pipeline would have transported natural gas from the rich shale deposits in Pennsylvania up to a hub near Albany, New York. In 2020, New York had denied permits to Williams, a Tulsa-based company that was the principal company behind the project. The company later announced it was backing out of the project. 

Trump said the project would save households in New York and New England thousands in energy costs. “Right now, they have the highest energy prices maybe in the world, they say. New England is a disaster,” Trump said. 

Not just about money

Many experts agree more pipeline infrastructure into the Northeast will bring down costs, but the pipeline could also save lives. A report on Winter Storm Elliott of 2022 by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation showed that delivery pipelines were at such low pressures during the cold event that the system nearly collapsed. If that would have happened, it would have taken weeks for crews to clear gas lines, perform repairs and safely resume service. 

“Most of the discussion about energy shortages usually revolve around high costs and potential for blackouts and brownouts, and that's true as far as it goes with electricity. But what a lot of people miss is that natural gas, and our natural gas system is not something you can just turn on and off like you can with the grid,” Jon Pepper, a communications consultant and novelist who lives in Lower Manhattan, told Just The News.

Both Trump and Hochul have been tight-lipped about what was discussed during their meeting. Hochul spokesperson Jerrel Harvey told Platts that no formal agreements or decisions were made, but the conversation was "productive." The Trump administration hasn’t issued any statements about the meeting, which given Trump’s willingness to be publicly combative with leaders when disagreements arise, may be a sign that progress toward an agreement is being made. 

No blank checks

The Hill reported that Hochul had also planned to discuss her congestion pricing program with Trump during their meeting. The program charges drivers entering parts of Manhattan during rush hour $9 in addition to any crossing tolls. Trump ordered New York to cease the program by Friday, March 21, but The New York Times reported that just 24 hours before the deadline, the Trump administration extended it by 30 days. 

The Biden administration had approved the congestion pricing program, and the New York Metropolitan Transit Authority filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration for revoking it, arguing that it lacks the authority to do so. In a post on X Thursday, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced the deadline extension, but he also called the plan “unlawful.” 

“Know that the billions of dollars the federal government sends to New York are not a blank check. Continued noncompliance will not be taken lightly,” Duffy said. 

Another bargaining chip the president holds is the expiration of the state and local tax (SALT) deduction. Residents who itemize tax breaks can deduct levies paid to state and local governments, including income and property taxes, from their federal tax returns. In 2017, Trump signed into law the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which capped the deduction at $10,000, which hits high-tax states like New York the hardest. Trump reversed course during his campaign and said he’d get the deduction back, and Hochul has voiced support for a complete restoration of the deduction. 

Environmentalists have succeeded so far

While it’s unclear how the give and take between Hochul and Trump will ultimately play out, the construction of the Constitution Pipeline, experts say, could provide energy security for a region that badly needs it. On Earth Day in 2016, New York State denied the Clean Water Act permit the project needed, which effectively killed the project. 

Environmentalists cheered Williams’ decision to cancel the pipeline. “As people across New York and Pennsylvania have said all along, there was no need for this dirty, dangerous project. Had Williams listened to the impacted communities eight years ago, they could have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in clean, renewable energy sources, instead of wasting it on a fracked gas pipeline that they’ve now abandoned,” Kelly Martin, director of the Sierra Club’s Beyond Dirty Fuels Campaign, said in a statement. 

New York’s 2019 Climate Act set aggressive targets to reach net-zero emissions in the state by 2050. At the same time, the state has become increasingly reliant on natural gas for electricity generation when wind and solar fail to meet demand, as they can do at any moment, even when demand is high. During extreme cold events, natural gas is diverted to homes for heating, leaving less gas for power plants. This increases the risk of blackouts, and if the situation is bad enough, the entire system may collapse as it nearly did during Winter Storm Elliott. 

In his novel “Hostile Climate,” Pepper writes about a scenario where a storm like Winter Storm Elliot pushes New York City’s natural gas system to the breaking point. In the book, subways are shut down, buildings go dark, and everyone is without heat. “If the supply system failed in New York, you would have to evacuate Manhattan, because you just couldn’t survive the winter,” Pepper said. 

He pointed out that it would be the city’s poorest who would face the worst of such a disaster. “People who routinely and reflexively oppose gas pipelines coming into New York usually hold up the low income folks and say they'd be disproportionately disadvantaged by climate change. Well, no, they would be even more disadvantaged in a real way, in a very dangerous and traumatic way, if the gas system fails,” Pepper said. 

Reliability a needed asset

Roger Caiazza, an environmental analyst with more than 40 years of experience and publisher of the “Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York,” told Just the News that such a disaster is possible. Caiazza and Dr. Judith Curry, president at Climate Forecast Applications Network, published an analysis titled “Historical Weather and Climate Extremes for New York,” in 2023. The report identified an event in January 1961 as the probable worst-case scenario in the state. Caiazza told Just the News that, with or without climate change, a similar event could happen again.

“During an extended cold snap like that I am sure there would be a natural gas supply crisis affecting gas to homes. The best way to address it is a redundancy of supply,” Caiazza told Just the News. 

A technical report published in December 2024 in Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences states that New York’s natural gas supplies are sufficient to meet normal demands, but more infrastructure is needed to supply the state with energy when demand spikes. 

“Natural gas supplies are expected to remain sufficient to meet demand for New York State. However, adequate pipeline delivery capacity is critical to ensure that available gas supplies can be provided to the markets. Delivery capacity is especially important during winter system operations in which natural gas competes in the home heating, industrial, and electric generation sectors,” the report states. 

Caiazza explained that New York’s power plant operations address normal natural gas shortages with backup generators running on oil. But that might not be enough during a serious cold event. “The issue is how much oil is stored and whether the units could be resupplied before they run out in an extreme cold weather event. Note that New York’s problems in this regard pale in comparison to New England’s. The Constitution Pipeline would be a great reliability asset for New England and save them money, too,” Caiazza said. 

Regional problem

New England states had bet almost "all-in" that wind and solar would satisfy their energy needs, which would render natural gas infrastructure unnecessary.  In 2020, Attorney General Maura Healey, who is now the state’s governor, launched an investigation into the natural gas industry as part of an effort to stop consumers from using fossil fuels. 

Massachusetts’ ratepayers are now facing sky-high heating costs. Lacking the pipelines to transport the gas from Pennsylvania, much of the cost is delivery fees to import liquified natural gas. Even if that gets natural gas to Massachusetts’ ports, New England has little pipeline capacity to get it to residents and power plants. In 2024, the average rate in Massachusetts was 30.73 cents per kilowatt-hour, ranking as the 7th highest in the nation, according to ElectricityRates.com, an energy industry advertising company.

Should Trump get Hochul on board with the Constitution Pipeline project, there’s no guarantee it will get built. At the CERAWeek conference earlier this month, Alan Armstrong, CEO of Williams, said that even with Trump’s support, Natural Gas Intelligence reported, the company wouldn’t proceed with the project as long as New England’s governors oppose it. 

“We’re not going to go putting our neck out until they invite us with the red carpet rolled out,” Armstrong said. 

Activists activating 

Anti-fossil fuel activists are already mobilizing to stop it from ever being built, regardless of any risks or costs to residents. In response to the news that Hochul is negotiating with Trump, the Village of Hastings-on-Hudson Tuesday voted unanimously to reject a proposal for the Constitution Pipeline, as well as the expansion of another pipeline project. The resolution, according to the Yonkers Times, specifically calls on Hochul to block the pipeline, citing impacts to water and climate change. 

While activists will fight to stop consumers from accessing natural gas, Caiazza said that New York’s leadership may be recognizing the danger anti-fossil fuel policies are creating. 

“I do think that there are hints that even the Democrats behind this law are sensing that there are issues and that some modifications may be necessary,” he said.