Kremlin drags its feet on ceasefire deal as armies steamroll Ukraine in Kursk

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Wednesday indicated that Moscow was in no rush to reply to the American-Ukrainian plan for a 30-day ceasefire, an announcement that came as Russian armies drove battered Ukrainian troops out of a salient in its own Kursk Oblast and appear poised to advance along the front.

On Tuesday, Ukrainian diplomats reached an agreement with American officials to restore military aid and intelligence sharing to Kyiv in exchange for agreeing to an immediate, 30-day ceasefire deal that they would present to the Russians. That exchange followed a public squabble at the Oval Office between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and President Donald Trump in which Zelensky was removed from the White House. Zelensky had been in Washington to sign a mineral resources deal that was not executed. Ukraine recommitted to the deal as part of the Wednesday deal.

"Look, you are getting a little ahead of yourself, we don't want to do that,” Peskov told reporters about the ceasefire, according to Russian outlet RIA Novosti. “Yesterday, when talking to the press, both [Secretary of State Marco] Rubio and [National Security Advisor Mike] Waltz said that they would pass on to us detailed information about the essence of the conversations that took place in Jeddah through various diplomatic channels. First, we need to get that information.”

A ceasefire proposal appears to be unpopular with some members of the Russian government, with high-profile politicians condemning the idea. State Duma Deputy Viktor Sobolev, a member of the Duma’s defense committee and notably, an opponent of the pro-Putin coalition, called a temporary ceasefire “absolutely unacceptable,” saying it would allow Ukraine to “regroup and rearm” and “play into the hands of” Kyiv.

Russia is gaining ground in the military campaign

Russian troops are currently advancing along the front and posting substantial gains against the Ukrainian military at the moment and a ceasefire would potentially bring that momentum to a halt. Ukrainian forces last year invaded Russia directly, carving out a large swath of territory in the border "oblast," or region, of Kursk, centered on the city of Sudzha. 

That location became a cauldron for the Ukrainians as Russia stiffened its defense, and the region became decidedly unstable in recent weeks after the recapture by Russian forces of Sverdlikovo, exposing the Ukrainian flank. A daring operation by Russian special forces, moreover, saw personnel travel through a drained pipeline to attack the Ukrainian rear, which triggered a rout and led to the Russian recapture of Sudzha on Tuesday. Geolocation-based territorial maps show varying degrees of Russian control in the city.

Both nations have a bad history with ceasefires

Complicating matters for both sides is their history of dubious and short-lived ceasefires since the outbreak of the Donbas War in 2014. The Minsk I and II Accords both followed a decisive Ukrainian defeat on the battlefields of Ilovaisk and Debaltsevo, respectively. In those battles, Ukraine fought Russian-backed separatists and not the official Russian military. Both sides blame the other for violating both agreements.

Explicitly pro-Ukrainian analyst Julian Ropcke, senior editor for security policy at Bild-Zeitung, a German-owned tabloid, highlighted that history and implied a ceasefire deal would lead to a repeat of those incidents.

“Amazed to see people thinking a ceasefire deal would stop Russia’s war in Ukraine,” he wrote on X. “After signing Minsk 1 in September 2014, Russia pumped in more troops and kept advancing, capturing Donetsk airport and 20 more towns and villages. After signing Minsk 2 in February 2015, Russia further advanced and captured Debalsteve and five more villages.”

The Russians themselves previously ruled out a ceasefire, with Russian President Vladimir Putin stating last year that he would not accept a temporary agreement and would only allow a ceasefire after a lasting accord had been reached. Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergei Lavrov, meanwhile, downplayed the seriousness of a ceasefire proposal ahead of the Ukrainian meeting with the Americans on Tuesday.

“Zelensky is saying publicly that he doesn't want any ceasefire until Americans give him any guarantees that they will destroy Russia with nuclear weapons. It's not serious,” Lavrov told reporters on a Russia Today webcast.

In an interview with bloggers Mario Nawfal, Larry C. Johnson, and Andrew Napolitano published Wednesday, moreover, Lavrov insisted that Trump had no desire to provide Ukraine with security guarantees while Zelensky remained in power.

"He has his own view of the situation, which he bluntly presents every now and then that this war should have never started. That the pulling Ukraine into NATO, is a violation of its constitution, a violation of the declaration of independence of 1991,” Lavrov said. “On the basis of which we recognized Ukraine as a sovereign state for several reasons, including that this declaration was saying no NATO."

The terms of the deal itself remain unclear and the joint statement from the State Department and Ukrainian government did not offer much detail other than a proposal for an immediate 30-day ceasefire, during which they hope to hold negotiations with Moscow.

At present, Russia maintains a swath of Ukrainian territory from the Khariv to Kherson Oblasts, providing a land bridge to Crimea, which it annexed in 2014. Russia formally annexed four more regions amid the war but does not fully control any of them. Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested that the Ukrainians would likely have to give up some territory in a peace deal.

Russia's recent military successes may be incentive to delay accord

“The most important thing that we have to leave here with is a strong sense that Ukraine is prepared to do difficult things, like the Russians are going to have to do difficult things to end this conflict or at least pause it in some way, shape or form,” Rubio told reporters Tuesday. “I think both sides need to come to an understanding that there’s no military solution to this situation.”

The state of the Russian economy has also appeared as a contributing factor. Trump previously threatened the Russians with additional sanctions if they refused to come to the table, though the scope of those sanctions and their potential impact remains unclear.

"Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely ‘pounding’ Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED," Trump wrote on Truth Social last week.

Conversely, some analysts believe Putin may use the ceasefire offer to drag out negotiations and demand greater concessions for a pause. Bloomberg News, citing an unnamed person “close to the Kremlin,” reported that he may demand an end to arms shipments to Ukraine.

“Putin won’t give a hard ‘yes’ or a hard ‘no,’” Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center Senior Fellow Tatiana Stanovaya told the outlet. “Even in a fantastic situation where Putin makes some gestures toward a truce, it would still be a temporary one and with very harsh conditions.”