Nevada gubernatorial candidates locked in head-to-head race

(The Center Square) - The latest poll by Emerson College shows the Republican incumbent and Democratic favorite tied at 41% less than a year from the Nevada gubernatorial election.

Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford vie for the governorship as the country watches on in what experts say is likely to be one of the closest elections in November 2026. The poll also revealed low approval for both of the state’s Democratic senators.

“ President Trump is potentially going to drag down a lot of otherwise popular Republicans,” Matt Taglia, senior director of Emerson College Polling, told The Center Square. “In our final poll of November 2024, we had Lombardo's approval in the 40s. He's now in the low 30s. That's not great, [but] he tests better than any of the other sitting elected officials in this poll.”

In a poll of 800 active registered Nevada voters between Nov. 16-18, Emerson College Polling results came back at an even 41% split between the gubernatorial race’s two biggest candidates, with a 3.4% margin of error. While incumbents typically have an advantage in elections, Lombardo has regularly polled alongside Ford. The remaining 18% of polled voters said they were still undecided.

The prediction market Kalshi similarly had the two gubernatorial candidates nearly split, with one Kalshi betting line putting it as one of the top five closest gubernatorial races for 2026. Taglia told the Center Square that prediction markets use polls as a primary indicator.

“ Lombardo has historically been … a relatively popular governor, and I think that he's obviously still a very strong gubernatorial candidate as the sitting governor,” said Taglia. “So I don't necessarily see this holding, but there are these headwinds there.”

One major issue for the incumbent, Taglia said, is his connection with President Donald Trump. Earlier this month, Trump announced his endorsement of the Republican candidate, with Lombardo thanking him. The governor added on social media platform X, “I look forward to continuing my work to advance our conservative agenda and keep Nevada red!”

The Emerson poll found Trump had a slightly higher job approval rating than Lombardo himself, at 39% and 34 percent, respectively for the two men.

But 35% of those surveyed approved of Trump’s economic work.

The economy is also a major problem for Lombardo, according to Emerson’s poll. The two top issues for Nevada voters were the economy (39%) and housing affordability (16%).

“ There's only so much that a governor can do to bring down the cost of living in a state,” said Taglia. “But I think we are seeing in some states, governors proposing and getting behind legislation that attempts to at least ease housing affordability. And I think that that goes hand in hand with the economy and inflation and the overall cost of living.”

Lombardo signed a major spending bill this summer aimed at creating more affordable housing.

Taglia said neither Lombardo nor Ford had yet to successfully champion the economic issue. “Either candidate is going to have to speak to the economy and housing affordability.”

“I do think that there is a steeper hill to climb there for Lombardo, in the sense that he'll have to differentiate himself from the Trump administration as far as how he wants to tackle the local economy in Nevada,” said Taglia. “That is one area where I think I would rather be Ford, because then you're playing the part of the opposition, and you don't have to back up any of the administration's policies.”

Ford has repeatedly stressed affordability in his campaign, saying his experience as an attorney general would help him drive down costs.

“Across Nevada, families are having to choose between the groceries in their shopping carts or picking up their medication,” Ford wrote Thursday on X. “As Governor, I’ll work tirelessly to drive down health care costs and protect families from price spikes that put their health at risk.”

Nevada's U.S. senators score low in poll

The Emerson poll also showed low approval ratings for the U.S. senators from Nevada, both Democrats. Catherine Cortez Masto had only 31% approval, while Jacky Rosen was down at 28%

“Obviously those are not places that you want to be if you're either sitting senator, with the major caveat that neither of them are up for reelection in 2026,” said Taglia. “Those numbers right now don't matter too much, but I think it does speak to the Democratic base. With, in both cases, Democrats being split over their approval.”

While the poll did not ask specifically what Nevadans disapproved of about the senators, Taglia said it could be connected to their Republican-aligned votes to reopen the government. Cortez Masto backed a continuing resolution to fund the government during all of the Senate's 15 votes, while Rosen cast her vote in favor of the resolution on the 15th time, in which there were enough votes to end the shutdown.

“Cortez Masto was one of the original senators to attempt to broker a compromise, with Rosen then following thereafter,” added Taglia. “I think it definitely speaks to the Democratic base there.”